NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	8.9 [144]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +24.5%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	3.4 [484]		LVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): -40.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.25	0.12	0.13	0.00	9	81%	0.25	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.06	0.03	18	63%	0.23	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.01	16	44%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.03	14	69%	0.09	6	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	6	61%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Marcus Haislip	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	11	73%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	12	77%	0.20	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	7	64%	0.16	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Mamadou N'diaye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	11	59%	-0.05	4	-0.12	12	50%	-0.21
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.04,-0.16,-0.41	-0.41	-0.06	-0.34	0.01	19	41%	-0.41	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	2.5	27.4	16.6	22.3	2.6	35.1	126.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +19.4%

MIL +23.8%

TOR -5.9%

MIL +9.0%

MIL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	15.5	114.1	108.4	101.6
season	15.4	16.2		106.3	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		105.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.1	14.0	16.0	15.4	15.1
TOR	14.9	15.9	16.0	15.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	76	78	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.50	14	-12	26	14.9	16.2	-1.36	15.8	14.8	1.02
Ervin Johnson	34	34	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.32	13	-11	24	13.6	16.1	-2.49	16.1	15.4	0.62
Desmond Mason	73	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	1	0	15.2	14.7	0.56	15.6	16.0	-0.43
Tim Thomas	60	62	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	3	-4	14.8	15.7	-0.81	16.2	14.6	1.57
Michael Redd	43	46	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	2	-2	14.5	15.7	-1.12	14.7	16.5	-1.79
Toni Kukoc	63	67	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.14	9	-7	16	15.3	14.8	0.44	16.0	14.9	1.14
Sam Cassell	69	72	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.36	-10	12	-22	15.9	12.7	3.25	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Marcus Haislip	15	14	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.08	-7	9	-16	16.4	14.9	1.52	14.0	16.0	-1.95
Joel Przybilla	27	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	11	-20	15.9	14.8	1.13	15.3	15.8	-0.56

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jelani McCoy	34	33	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.07	-1	-1	0	14.9	16.1	-1.12	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Mamadou N'diaye	26	26	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-4	6	16.0	15.6	0.41	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Morris Peterson	81	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.41	5	-7	12	15.3	17.7	-2.41	15.4	13.7	1.67
Alvin Williams	77	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-3	4	16.1	13.9	2.12	15.6	12.9	2.69
Michael Bradley	53	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.27	-3	1	-4	16.0	15.2	0.80	15.4	14.8	0.59
Rafer Alston	73	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	3	-8	15.4	16.4	-0.97	14.8	16.1	-1.33
Jerome Williams	76	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	0	-2	15.8	15.2	0.57	15.5	13.9	1.56
Chris Jefferies	55	54	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.42	-7	5	-12	15.7	15.6	0.15	14.3	16.4	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.14,0.21,0.47,0.64,0.53,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.77,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 91, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.28,0	90.1%
MIA 98, SAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.4,0.47,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.15,0	90.0%
SAC 89, DAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.42,0.3,0.14,0.2,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.45,0.63,0.57,0.27,0	89.6%