NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	8.2 [232]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +39.9%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	2.9 [230]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -20.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.37	0.15	0.20	-0.02	22	71%	0.44	4	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.33,0.33	0.12	0.22	0.01	11	64%	0.33	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Rashard Lewis	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	9	70%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	64%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	4	50%	-0.01	1	0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	64%	0.11	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Norris Cole	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.07	0.28	-0.05	15	58%	0.42	1	-0.02	6	50%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	5	82%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	45%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	9	39%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	3	33%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	14	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.09
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,-0.14,-0.21	-0.21	0.02	-0.20	0.03	15	58%	-0.04	3	-0.17	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.5	31.4	17.6	30.2	3.4	39.5	152.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.2%

SAS -1.1%

MIA +12.2%

SAS -0.1%

SAS -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.2	16.4	15.1	110.1	109.1	105.2
season	15.6	15.0		109.7	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.8		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	15.7	15.0	17.9	16.2
SAS	14.5	16.3	17.7	17.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	63	62	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.50	9	-7	16	15.3	18.3	-3.06	16.6	15.9	0.68
LeBron James	65	67	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-9	20	16.9	14.3	2.53	17.4	12.9	4.54
Mario Chalmers	55	56	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-3	8	17.2	14.6	2.58	16.0	17.0	-0.95
Rashard Lewis	48	46	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	-6	14	16.2	16.1	0.15	16.7	16.0	0.79
Dwyane Wade	65	63	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.39	-8	10	-18	16.2	16.2	-0.10	16.2	16.8	-0.67
Chris Bosh	69	68	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.35	-11	13	-24	16.1	16.3	-0.22	16.4	16.3	0.02
James Jones	12	11	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	-1	4	17.7	15.9	1.81	14.2	16.7	-2.49
Chris Andersen	45	44	-0.01	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	3	-4	15.9	16.4	-0.50	16.2	16.5	-0.36
Norris Cole	22	21	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	5	-8	13.8	17.0	-3.14	14.8	16.9	-2.04
Udonis Haslem	1	2	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	5	-8	20.0	16.1	3.86	13.0	16.4	-3.44

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	2	1	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.00	3	-5	8	13.0	16.4	-3.44	20.0	16.1	3.86
Tiago Splitter	36	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-3	4	16.6	16.2	0.47	15.5	16.6	-1.09
Patty Mills	30	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-1	0	15.4	16.8	-1.41	15.5	16.5	-1.03
Manu Ginobili	49	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.29	4	-6	10	16.2	16.6	-0.41	16.1	16.3	-0.14
Danny Green	30	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-2	2	16.3	16.4	-0.15	17.7	15.3	2.40
Marco Belinelli	46	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	5	-12	15.6	17.2	-1.67	14.8	17.6	-2.84
Kawhi Leonard	55	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	4	-10	17.1	15.2	1.89	17.7	13.8	3.91
Tim Duncan	68	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.44	2	-4	6	16.3	16.6	-0.31	16.9	14.0	2.92
Boris Diaw	61	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.40	-5	3	-8	16.6	15.7	0.90	15.0	19.0	-4.04
Tony Parker	65	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	2	-6	16.7	15.5	1.20	16.4	15.4	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.4,0.47,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 91, LAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.69,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.52,0.33,0.02,0	91.6%
NJN 91, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.28,0	91.1%
PHI 93, CHH 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.41,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.6,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.45,0.15,0	91.0%