NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	8.7 [161]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +22.0%
Detroit Pistons	102		Comeback	53.4 [42]		LVP	Jason Terry (ATL): -42.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Glover	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.04	-0.01	14	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,-0.11,0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	17	56%	0.11	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Ira Newble	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Jermaine Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	4	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Alan Henderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	5	42%	-0.05	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.43	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31,-0.43	-0.15	-0.30	-0.02	21	39%	-0.27	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.13

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.01	0.22	0.01	19	59%	0.30	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.18,-0.18,0.21	0.21	-0.06	0.26	-0.01	23	44%	0.29	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.13
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.02	7	76%	0.12	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.07
Ben Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	10	41%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.01	7	53%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	14	41%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.13	-0.01	6	25%	-0.17	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.7	2.3	29.5	16.5	25.4	2.4	36.5	1.6	14.0	152.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +49.5%

ATL -8.1%

DET +12.0%

DET +2.2%

ATL -5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	15.6	16.0	15.5	98.0	102.0	101.6
season	15.1	16.8		99.5	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.7		97.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	12.7	13.8	18.1	19.3	14.4	15.6
DET	18.1	15.0	17.9	13.5	15.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Henderson	39	39	0.41	-0.91	1.33	0.15	9	-12	21	15.1	16.0	-0.95	16.3	15.8	0.49
Jermaine Jackson	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-3	3	0.0	15.8	-15.79	13.0	16.0	-3.04
Ira Newble	64	66	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.27	8	-11	19	14.9	16.9	-2.07	16.1	15.8	0.33
Darvin Ham	45	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	7	-17	16.6	14.8	1.78	15.5	16.4	-0.88
Jason Terry	100	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	15.8	0.0	15.79	16.0	13.0	3.04
Dion Glover	93	91	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.42	-4	1	-5	15.7	15.1	0.55	16.3	12.7	3.67
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	75	76	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.49	-5	2	-7	15.8	15.0	0.80	15.4	17.8	-2.40
Theo Ratliff	88	86	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.49	-10	7	-17	15.7	15.1	0.64	16.2	14.9	1.34

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mehmet Okur	46	47	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-5	13	15.4	16.5	-1.07	16.3	15.1	1.20
Clifford Robinson	79	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-5	13	16.0	16.0	0.01	16.1	14.0	2.06
Chauncey Billups	94	94	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	1	1	16.1	15.3	0.72	15.5	16.9	-1.31
Richard Hamilton	75	76	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.53	-1	4	-5	16.3	15.3	0.97	15.2	16.8	-1.55
Jon Barry	44	46	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	-3	9	15.4	16.5	-1.03	15.2	16.0	-0.76
Corliss Williamson	30	32	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	-1	5	16.1	16.0	0.18	16.9	15.0	1.91
Michael Curry	40	39	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	6	-9	16.4	15.7	0.65	15.6	15.7	-0.07
Ben Wallace	92	91	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.04	-9	12	-21	16.1	14.7	1.37	15.1	20.4	-5.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.45,0.23,0.1,0.07,0.46,0.48,0.63,0.43,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 110, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.33,0.16,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.83,1	89.6%
LAC 91, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.67,0.58,1	89.4%
TOR 74, IND 72	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.15,0	88.9%