NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	98		Excitement	7.2 [371]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +20.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	8.6 [163]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -36.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.02	7	93%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	0.01	10	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Mark Madsen	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	6	80%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	3	25%	-0.01	1	-0.07	2	0%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	14	54%	0.04	5	-0.15	9	89%	0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.36	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.21,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.33,-0.32,-0.37,-0.43,-0.43,-0.33,-0.36,-0.36	-0.28	-0.10	-0.01	23	40%	-0.08	7	-0.28	14	43%	-0.06

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.05	-0.01	15	70%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	11	74%	0.19	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.02	6	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	7	73%	0.07	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.02	9	67%	0.07	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	2	17%	-0.07	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17	-0.17	0.00	-0.14	0.03	16	54%	-0.10	2	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.31	-0.31	-0.21	-0.11	-0.02	15	20%	-0.17	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	30.4	15.7	27.8	2.5	32.3	134.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +25.1%

LAL +13.1%

LAL +20.2%

MIL -8.5%

LAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIL	NBA	LAL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	14.0	15.5	105.4	100.0	101.6
season	15.4	15.4		105.0	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.1		106.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	19.5	16.7	15.1	16.1	16.8
MIL	13.3	13.3	14.9	14.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	66	68	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.31	22	-18	40	16.0	18.7	-2.67	14.5	12.7	1.77
Kobe Bryant	85	85	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.29	14	-10	24	16.7	17.5	-0.76	14.1	13.2	0.87
Derek Fisher	72	73	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.37	8	-4	12	16.9	16.6	0.30	14.2	13.3	0.93
Shaquille O'Neal	72	74	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-5	14	17.2	15.5	1.66	14.5	12.2	2.24
Mark Madsen	41	44	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.11	11	-7	18	17.4	16.3	1.09	14.6	13.5	1.13
Devean George	37	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.54	-13	17	-30	17.3	16.5	0.82	13.5	14.3	-0.83
Slava Medvedenko	8	8	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	3	-2	18.9	16.6	2.26	14.0	14.0	-0.01
Kareem Rush	20	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	7	-10	14.8	17.3	-2.49	14.2	14.0	0.23
Samaki Walker	9	9	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	9	-14	16.2	16.9	-0.65	11.6	14.3	-2.72
Brian Shaw	9	9	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.11	-11	15	-26	21.2	16.3	4.89	11.1	14.3	-3.21
Robert Horry	63	60	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.09	-12	16	-28	17.1	16.3	0.80	13.0	15.7	-2.70

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	66	62	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-6	8	14.1	13.8	0.32	17.2	16.0	1.26
Tim Thomas	47	47	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-7	10	13.1	14.9	-1.85	17.5	16.1	1.38
Toni Kukoc	56	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-6	8	13.5	14.8	-1.26	15.8	18.3	-2.46
Michael Redd	65	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.49	9	-13	22	13.6	15.0	-1.38	16.4	17.7	-1.30
Desmond Mason	62	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-3	2	14.4	13.2	1.20	17.5	15.3	2.17
Sam Cassell	78	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.38	-6	2	-8	14.2	13.2	0.92	16.7	17.4	-0.74
Gary Payton	76	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	9	-22	14.4	12.3	2.14	16.7	17.2	-0.45
Ervin Johnson	20	21	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	12	-28	15.2	13.7	1.57	16.6	16.9	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.66,0.47,0.46,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 92, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.16,0	91.0%
IND 125, HOU 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.66,0.25,0.28,0.06,0,0	90.9%
SAC 115, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.47,0.31,0.21,0.02,0,0	90.5%