NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	104		Excitement	6.7 [464]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (PHX): +30.5%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.1 [296]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): -27.4%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.30	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3	0.22	0.12	0.03	14	97%	0.40	4	-0.09	8	62%	-0.04
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.13	0.01	0.09	-0.03	13	55%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Shawn Marion	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.05	0.01	13	61%	0.17	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Langhi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	65%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27	0.27	0.18	0.10	0.01	18	78%	0.32	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	54%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	10	56%	0.05	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.04
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.2,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27	-0.27	-0.16	-0.12	-0.01	15	33%	-0.20	3	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	26.8	15.8	26.0	1.8	31.4	128.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +80.1%

SAS -1.6%

SAS -20.3%

SAS -8.6%

PHX +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAS	NBA	PHX	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	16.7	15.5	115.6	109.0	101.6
season	15.0	15.7		101.1	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.9		96.9	100.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.3	15.4	18.3	14.5	15.5
SAS	15.7	18.2	19.6	14.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	53	53	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-4	15	15.1	16.1	-1.00	16.0	17.8	-1.82
Stephon Marbury	90	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.5	0.0	15.47	16.7	0.0	16.72
Amar'e Stoudemire	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-4	15	15.4	15.6	-0.17	16.2	18.9	-2.79
Joe Johnson	85	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	0	7	15.4	17.2	-1.84	16.6	18.3	-1.73
Shawn Marion	81	80	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.27	1	6	-5	15.4	16.2	-0.84	16.7	16.8	-0.07
Dan Langhi	24	25	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	1	5	16.4	15.1	1.24	18.4	16.0	2.39
Tom Gugliotta	19	18	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.13	-3	10	-13	17.4	14.9	2.48	18.9	16.2	2.79
Bo Outlaw	28	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	14.8	15.8	-0.99	17.0	16.6	0.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	13	11	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.01	5	-12	17	18.7	16.4	2.31	19.0	15.0	4.03
Speedy Claxton	13	12	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-10	13	19.3	16.3	3.03	18.1	15.1	3.02
Steve Kerr	10	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-1	-5	15.7	16.8	-1.15	13.4	15.8	-2.40
Bruce Bowen	43	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	0	-7	18.7	14.9	3.74	15.3	15.7	-0.40
David Robinson	56	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-4	1	16.9	16.5	0.37	15.7	15.0	0.70
Malik Rose	40	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-2	-3	16.7	16.7	0.06	15.3	15.6	-0.27
Manu Ginobili	61	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-6	5	16.1	18.1	-2.03	15.8	14.8	0.99
Tim Duncan	82	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.21	-6	-1	-5	16.6	18.0	-1.39	15.4	16.7	-1.35
Tony Parker	66	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-3	-1	16.4	17.7	-1.38	15.3	15.8	-0.48
Stephen Jackson	61	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.29	-11	4	-15	15.6	19.2	-3.64	14.7	17.4	-2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 122, PHX 111	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.38,0.18,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.02,0,0,0	93.2%
WAS 94, MIA 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.27,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.21,0.26,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.17,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.0%
SEA 99, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.08,0	92.8%