NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	103		Excitement	9.5 [91]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +40.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	108		Comeback	2.4 [264]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -22.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.40	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.4	0.06	0.33	-0.01	16	59%	0.42	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.02
Al Harrington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	7	53%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.05	0.01	11	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Erick Strickland	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	9	33%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.02	-0.14	-0.03	16	62%	0.11	5	-0.24	5	40%	-0.09
Ron Mercer	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	9	22%	-0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-0.02	19	51%	-0.03	3	-0.19	7	43%	-0.08

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Batiste	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	110%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	8	56%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	60%	0.09	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.03	-0.02	22	47%	0.02	3	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.07	-0.07	17	45%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	14	39%	-0.11	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	28.4	16.4	25.5	0.7	32.9	1.8	16.2	152.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -4.1%

IND -3.8%

MEM +20.1%

MEM +34.3%

MEM +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MEM	NBA	IND	MEM	NBA
this game	16.0	15.4	15.5	103.0	104.9	101.6
season	15.4	15.3		102.2	101.8
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	15.0	15.9	17.3	15.3	17.0	16.0
MEM	14.4	15.4	14.7	17.4	14.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-3	1	3.0	16.1	-13.09	2.0	15.5	-13.51
Al Harrington	37	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-1	-3	16.8	15.4	1.39	14.3	16.0	-1.64
Erick Strickland	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	0	-5	16.3	15.9	0.38	15.4	15.4	0.02
Jamaal Tinsley	58	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-5	5	15.9	16.0	-0.03	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Ron Mercer	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	2	-9	15.7	16.2	-0.49	15.6	15.2	0.44
Reggie Miller	86	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-5	5	15.9	16.3	-0.38	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Metta World Peace	93	97	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-5	5	15.8	18.0	-2.19	15.5	13.2	2.35
Jermaine O'Neal	82	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.54	4	-9	13	16.0	15.9	0.02	15.8	13.0	2.85
Brad Miller	82	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.23	-11	6	-17	16.0	15.6	0.49	15.3	15.9	-0.62

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	86	86	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-4	13	15.7	14.0	1.65	16.3	14.1	2.11
Jason Williams	76	75	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-2	9	15.7	14.4	1.37	15.7	16.6	-0.91
Wesley Person	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	0	5	15.6	15.0	0.52	15.6	16.7	-1.04
Lorenzen Wright	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	-1	7	15.8	14.4	1.45	15.7	16.6	-0.90
Mike Batiste	27	25	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	8	-11	15.1	15.5	-0.41	16.3	15.8	0.48
Drew Gooden	26	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	5	-5	14.7	15.6	-0.92	17.9	15.3	2.61
Michael Dickerson	35	31	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	5	-5	14.6	15.8	-1.18	16.7	15.6	1.04
Earl Watson	27	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	7	-9	14.4	15.7	-1.37	16.6	15.7	0.91
Stromile Swift	22	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	7	-9	13.9	15.8	-1.87	15.2	16.1	-0.95
Shane Battier	67	66	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	5	-5	15.7	14.7	1.05	15.1	17.7	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.46,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.83,0.92,0.54,0.75,0.63,0.43,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 91, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.8,0.89,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.46,0.69,0.54,0.77,0.99,1	90.0%
PHI 95, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.84,0.54,0.38,0.54,0.45,0.69,1	89.1%
NJN 114, MIL 119	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.59,0.73,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.67,0.92,1	88.9%