NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	7.2 [366]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +25.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	4.9 [147]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -13.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	24	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Antonio Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	13	57%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Michael Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	65%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.05
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.06

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.09	0.00	14	80%	0.27	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.01	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	14	62%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.07	0.01	17	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	13	43%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.3	29.1	14.8	23.1	1.8	27.4	120.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +1.2%

TOR +2.7%

TOR +37.4%

TOR +8.4%

TOR +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.3	15.5	111.4	108.0	101.6
season	16.2	15.4		98.8	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.3		106.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	13.8	16.2	21.9	16.5
MIL	16.1	16.2	15.1	18.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	62	62	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.45	5	-2	7	16.8	15.7	1.03	16.7	15.2	1.53
Alvin Williams	63	63	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.50	0	3	-3	16.8	15.7	1.08	15.4	18.4	-2.97
Antonio Davis	81	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	16.8	12.3	4.53	15.9	20.4	-4.51
Jerome Williams	70	72	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.55	-3	6	-9	16.6	16.1	0.50	15.8	18.6	-2.80
Vince Carter	61	61	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	3	-3	17.0	15.2	1.78	16.6	15.4	1.19
Morris Peterson	53	53	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	2	-1	15.5	17.9	-2.47	15.3	17.7	-2.39
Michael Bradley	25	24	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.12	6	-3	9	15.0	17.0	-2.03	19.2	15.2	3.98
Rafer Alston	25	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.09	3	0	3	15.7	16.8	-1.08	18.4	15.4	2.97

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	41	42	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-7	11	14.5	17.8	-3.30	15.0	17.8	-2.83
Jason Caffey	28	27	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.07	1	-4	5	18.7	15.1	3.58	16.1	16.6	-0.55
Ervin Johnson	48	48	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.12	3	-6	9	14.5	18.4	-3.90	17.6	15.1	2.53
Kevin Ollie	31	30	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	0	-3	20.1	14.2	5.90	16.6	16.4	0.17
Sam Cassell	72	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-3	3	15.4	20.2	-4.86	16.5	16.1	0.48
Ray Allen	65	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.48	0	-3	3	16.0	17.0	-0.93	16.6	16.0	0.67
Toni Kukoc	35	36	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	7	-17	18.4	14.8	3.58	15.2	17.3	-2.13
Anthony Mason	68	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.55	-2	-1	-1	15.1	20.4	-5.34	16.4	16.6	-0.23
Michael Redd	52	51	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.44	-8	5	-13	17.4	14.7	2.67	17.3	15.2	2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.68,0.83,0.71,0.53,0.32,0.21,0.23,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 123, DAL 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.45,0.29,0.33,0.02,0	92.3%
BOS 99, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.61,0.54,0.48,0.29,0.05,0.02,0	91.2%
DET 94, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.54,0.36,0.14,0.05,0	91.0%