NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	9.9 [67]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +49.2%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	7.8 [179]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -10.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.49	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.49	0.10	0.38	-0.00	11	80%	0.53	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0.17	0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.08,0.17	0.03	0.14	-0.00	13	62%	0.22	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.12
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.14,0.04	-0.07	0.10	-0.00	24	45%	0.12	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.14	-0.02	-0.07	10	32%	-0.00	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	8	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.06	0.19	-0.00	8	81%	0.30	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	9	89%	0.25	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.14	-0.00	8	50%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.01,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	36	46%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	47%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	13	54%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	33.2	17.8	27.2	2.8	41.1	151.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.7%

SAS +12.9%

SAS +23.1%

ORL -12.5%

ORL -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.5	116.0	114.9	101.6
season	15.7	14.6		102.5	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	15.8	17.6	16.1	16.1
ORL	15.7	12.5	13.7	16.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	69	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.54	4	-3	7	16.6	14.9	1.67	14.9	13.4	1.54
David Robinson	58	59	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-5	11	16.5	15.5	0.98	14.2	15.1	-0.97
Manu Ginobili	53	52	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-6	13	15.3	17.1	-1.84	16.0	12.7	3.29
Bruce Bowen	74	73	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	-4	9	16.4	14.9	1.47	14.6	14.3	0.32
Tim Duncan	82	81	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.58	-9	10	-19	16.3	14.8	1.46	14.9	12.2	2.76
Steve Kerr	25	26	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.24	-1	2	-3	14.9	16.6	-1.67	13.0	15.1	-2.06
Malik Rose	46	48	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.12	7	-6	13	15.8	16.4	-0.59	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Stephen Jackson	58	57	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	8	-15	15.8	16.5	-0.68	13.6	16.0	-2.42
Danny Ferry	5	5	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.08	-7	8	-15	18.4	16.0	2.42	11.2	14.7	-3.52

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	53	54	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.21	13	-14	27	13.5	15.9	-2.34	16.8	15.2	1.62
Andrew DeClercq	49	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.39	13	-14	27	14.9	14.2	0.68	17.6	14.8	2.78
Steven Hunter	8	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.10	-5	4	-9	15.7	14.4	1.33	15.0	16.2	-1.24
Jeryl Sasser	26	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	5	-11	15.5	14.2	1.29	15.2	16.4	-1.21
Pat Burke	25	23	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	7	-15	16.0	14.0	2.05	14.9	16.5	-1.58
Tracy McGrady	75	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.50	9	-10	19	13.8	17.3	-3.49	16.5	14.2	2.28
Ryan Humphrey	15	14	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	0.12	-14	13	-27	14.5	14.5	-0.08	12.9	16.7	-3.82
Pat Garrity	69	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.52	7	-8	15	14.0	16.0	-2.05	16.5	14.9	1.58
Mike Miller	72	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.63	9	-10	19	14.9	13.2	1.76	16.6	14.4	2.16
Shawn Kemp	37	37	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	10	-21	13.8	15.0	-1.14	15.3	16.6	-1.38
Darrell Armstrong	41	42	-0.69	0.18	-0.87	-0.33	-12	11	-23	15.9	13.5	2.34	14.7	17.3	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.67,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 98, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.42,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.42,0	89.4%
ORL 105, PHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.61,0.53,0.63,0.91,0.58,0	89.3%
CLE 81, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.73,0	89.2%