NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	5.9 [601]		MVP	Kendall Gill (MIN): +17.1%
Washington Wizards	89		Comeback	8.7 [96]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -14.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendall Gill	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.00	12	73%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Marc Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.01	10	45%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.02	-0.04	19	41%	0.00	6	-0.14	3	67%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	17	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	16	51%	-0.01	4	-0.12	9	78%	0.01
Michael Jordan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	18	45%	0.01	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	28.2	16.0	22.1	1.8	28.2	124.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +19.0%

MIN +2.4%

MIN +21.0%

MIN +8.1%

WAS -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	WAS	NBA	MIN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.5	16.6	15.5	106.6	100.0	101.6
season	14.9	16.5		104.0	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		101.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	16.3	16.3	15.4	15.5
WAS	14.1	16.5	19.7	16.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	55	54	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.28	13	-5	18	14.8	16.5	-1.72	16.8	16.2	0.58
Troy Hudson	46	46	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-1	10	14.8	16.1	-1.24	16.4	16.7	-0.33
Marc Jackson	26	25	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-3	14	14.5	15.9	-1.40	18.0	16.0	1.96
Kevin Garnett	76	73	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	3	2	14.8	18.8	-4.00	16.0	19.1	-3.14
Anthony Peeler	26	26	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	4	0	15.3	15.5	-0.27	16.7	16.5	0.15
Gary Trent	21	22	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	3	2	17.1	15.0	2.19	18.8	15.8	3.01
Kendall Gill	57	55	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	5	-2	15.6	15.2	0.41	16.4	16.7	-0.30
Rasho Nesterovic	64	64	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	9	-10	16.0	14.3	1.71	16.0	18.0	-1.96
Rod Strickland	45	43	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	9	-10	16.1	14.8	1.24	16.7	16.4	0.33
Joe Smith	39	37	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.02	-8	16	-24	16.5	14.7	1.88	16.1	16.9	-0.80

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	38	38	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-11	14	15.4	17.4	-1.97	16.2	15.0	1.20
Brendan Haywood	36	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-11	14	16.8	16.4	0.38	15.7	15.3	0.43
Larry Hughes	71	72	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-9	10	16.7	15.9	0.76	16.5	11.4	5.11
Tyronn Lue	40	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-4	0	16.4	16.7	-0.32	14.9	16.0	-1.08
Michael Jordan	77	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	0	-8	16.2	18.9	-2.73	14.9	19.3	-4.46
Christian Laettner	48	49	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	3	-14	17.3	15.6	1.70	14.8	16.3	-1.49
Etan Thomas	56	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	5	-18	16.5	16.6	-0.14	15.5	15.3	0.20
Jerry Stackhouse	79	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	3	-14	16.9	14.1	2.76	15.3	16.7	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.07,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 119, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.88,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.64,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
PHX 106, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.0%
PHX 99, CLE 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.87,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.16,0.19,0.11,0.15,0,0	92.6%