NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	5.1 [775]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +9.2%
Toronto Raptors	93		Comeback	1.6 [885]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (TOR): -16.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	31	51%	0.12	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	12	60%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	10	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	10	45%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	8	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Jeryl Sasser	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	11	54%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	17	54%	0.01	1	-0.01	12	58%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	14	55%	-0.01	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	53%	0.00	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Damone Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	4	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	7	53%	0.03	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	13	27%	-0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	28.2	16.4	28.4	2.4	32.6	135.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.3%

TOR -5.6%

ORL +7.0%

ORL +6.8%

ORL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.2	16.6	15.5	106.3	101.1	101.6
season	14.6	16.2		102.7	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		105.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.7	13.2	15.4	17.4	14.2
TOR	15.7	16.1	18.9	16.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	92	89	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-2	12	14.1	17.0	-2.88	16.8	10.3	6.51
Darrell Armstrong	66	63	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	13.8	15.0	-1.19	17.3	15.1	2.23
Jacque Vaughn	89	86	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.26	7	1	6	14.3	13.3	0.94	16.8	14.5	2.28
Andrew DeClercq	55	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-1	10	14.3	14.1	0.19	17.2	15.9	1.27
Pat Burke	29	28	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	-1	10	12.9	14.8	-1.89	17.6	16.2	1.35
Pat Garrity	63	61	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.24	-2	10	-12	14.7	13.3	1.35	16.2	17.4	-1.19
Shawn Kemp	47	46	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	10	-12	14.3	14.1	0.13	15.4	17.8	-2.39
Jeryl Sasser	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	10	-12	15.1	13.7	1.32	15.1	17.5	-2.40

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Art Long	7	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-3	-2	17.1	16.6	0.55	11.3	14.4	-3.07
Damone Brown	21	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-3	-2	16.4	16.7	-0.32	13.4	14.5	-1.04
Alvin Williams	62	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-10	12	15.4	19.1	-3.66	14.7	13.1	1.65
Jerome Williams	77	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.35	3	-11	14	16.2	18.9	-2.75	14.6	12.2	2.36
Jelani McCoy	43	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-5	2	17.8	15.6	2.13	14.0	14.4	-0.36
Lindsey Hunter	51	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-2	-4	17.1	16.0	1.09	14.8	13.4	1.44
Antonio Davis	74	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-2	-4	16.3	18.2	-1.91	14.3	13.9	0.33
Rafer Alston	39	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.00	-13	5	-18	18.7	15.1	3.62	12.4	15.5	-3.08
Morris Peterson	86	90	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	16.4	19.5	-3.07	14.3	12.2	2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 132, NYK 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.49,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
MIL 112, CHA 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
DET 96, MEM 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%