NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	5.0 [806]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): +12.4%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	1.0 [1186]		LVP	Earl Boykins (GSW): -9.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Lampley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	12	67%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	10	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sean Marks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	9	43%	-0.05	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Mike James	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	13	54%	-0.03	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.03	0.01	12	79%	0.17	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.01	9	64%	0.07	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	53%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	16	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	16	55%	0.05	5	-0.13	8	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	4	31%	-0.05	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	26.5	16.3	24.6	2.4	30.2	126.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.1%

GSW +15.6%

GSW +9.0%

MIA -3.1%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	15.4	15.5	91.4	106.5	101.6
season	16.3	14.6		94.6	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.9		106.8	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	17.4	15.6	13.7	15.6
GSW	12.5	16.1	15.7	17.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	8	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-15	16	18.6	15.3	3.31	16.4	15.3	1.10
Vladimir Stepania	18	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-14	14	14.6	15.8	-1.23	15.6	15.3	0.30
Rasual Butler	50	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-10	6	15.0	16.3	-1.35	15.6	15.1	0.56
Mike James	36	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	-4	-6	16.9	14.8	2.10	16.7	14.5	2.17
Eddie House	51	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	-5	-4	14.3	17.2	-2.85	15.3	15.5	-0.25
Caron Butler	43	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-6	-2	16.1	15.2	0.87	15.6	15.2	0.42
Anthony Carter	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-10	6	14.8	16.9	-2.10	14.5	16.7	-2.17
Malik Allen	64	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.09	-14	0	-14	15.7	15.4	0.32	14.7	16.7	-2.02
Sean Lampley	59	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-6	-2	16.2	14.5	1.74	15.5	15.2	0.25
Brian Grant	79	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.01	-14	0	-14	15.9	13.7	2.22	15.4	14.8	0.60

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	83	83	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	2	10	15.3	15.8	-0.49	15.3	18.3	-3.02
Troy Murphy	72	71	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.10	17	-3	20	15.1	16.3	-1.25	16.3	13.2	3.11
Erick Dampier	67	67	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	3	8	15.4	15.2	0.19	15.1	16.9	-1.78
Mike Dunleavy	26	28	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	7	0	15.7	15.2	0.45	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Gilbert Arenas	70	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	4	6	15.0	16.6	-1.65	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Earl Boykins	38	38	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	6	2	17.1	14.2	2.94	15.3	15.8	-0.53
Bob Sura	45	45	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.20	1	13	-12	15.7	15.0	0.67	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Adonal Foyle	25	24	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	13	-12	15.2	15.4	-0.17	16.7	15.2	1.43
Jason Richardson	39	41	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	11	-8	14.4	16.1	-1.65	16.3	15.0	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.77,0.81,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 107, PHI 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,1,1	95.2%
BOS 108, WAS 123	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.8,0.7,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.8%
UTA 89, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.88,0.81,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%