NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	84		Excitement	7.1 [387]		MVP	Erick Strickland (IND): +29.9%
Indiana Pacers	91		Comeback	1.3 [795]		LVP	Baron Davis (NOH): -36.1%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Lynch	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bryce Drew	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05
Elden Campbell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
David Wesley	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	15	32%	-0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	0.01	20	40%	-0.06	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.29,-0.37,-0.37,-0.36	-0.13	-0.19	0.03	24	42%	-0.19	4	-0.17	5	80%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.29,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.18	0.03	7	100%	0.33	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Reggie Miller	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	11	65%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	19	50%	0.08	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.17,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.11	0.02	16	37%	-0.08	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	30.2	16.4	21.4	1.8	33.0	129.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +65.3%

NOH -0.0%

NOH -1.1%

NOH -15.8%

IND +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	IND	NBA	NOH	IND	NBA
this game	15.8	14.3	15.5	87.5	95.8	101.6
season	15.9	15.4		101.6	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		99.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.2	15.3	15.5	16.3	15.8
IND	13.1	12.4	17.2	15.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	17	16	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-9	11	13.8	16.3	-2.53	13.3	14.5	-1.19
George Lynch	39	36	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-14	21	14.0	17.1	-3.15	15.7	13.5	2.19
David Wesley	64	65	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-8	9	15.4	16.8	-1.41	13.8	15.5	-1.75
P.J. Brown	69	68	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-5	3	16.0	15.4	0.56	14.3	14.2	0.12
Elden Campbell	44	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.34	1	-8	9	14.5	17.0	-2.44	14.4	14.2	0.25
Jamaal Magloire	58	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	7	-21	17.2	13.7	3.53	13.9	14.9	-1.01
Courtney Alexander	36	35	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	0	-7	15.9	15.8	0.16	14.5	14.2	0.24
Baron Davis	79	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.26	-9	2	-11	16.3	13.8	2.53	14.5	13.3	1.19
Jamal Mashburn	74	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.23	-14	7	-21	16.7	12.9	3.87	14.2	14.5	-0.28

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	68	69	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.25	12	-5	17	14.7	13.3	1.46	15.3	17.3	-2.07
Metta World Peace	89	90	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.23	11	-4	15	14.1	17.8	-3.77	16.3	8.8	7.48
Reggie Miller	68	66	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.31	7	0	7	14.0	15.0	-0.97	16.2	15.1	1.03
Erick Strickland	40	42	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	5	-3	15.9	13.1	2.80	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Al Harrington	67	67	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.30	1	6	-5	14.4	14.0	0.48	16.1	15.3	0.76
Jamaal Tinsley	34	34	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	-2	11	13.4	14.8	-1.35	16.9	15.2	1.70
Austin Croshere	22	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	5	-3	11.6	15.1	-3.53	15.4	16.0	-0.62
Brad Miller	37	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	8	-9	15.5	13.5	2.02	17.7	14.5	3.14
Jeff Foster	7	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	8	-9	14.3	14.3	-0.02	11.0	16.2	-5.22
Ron Mercer	43	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	14	-21	13.9	14.7	-0.81	13.9	17.4	-3.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.73,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 96, IND 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	93.5%
TOR 87, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.93,1	93.1%
GSW 79, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.97,1	92.6%