NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	72		Excitement	8.1 [236]		MVP	Smush Parker (CLE): +18.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	74		Comeback	7.3 [213]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -27.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	8	83%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	15	50%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.04
Caron Butler	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	8	54%	-0.04	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.05
Vladimir Stepania	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	11	18%	-0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23	-0.10	-0.14	-0.00	10	35%	-0.19	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.13	-0.03	8	58%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.06
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.10	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.06	-0.01	27	49%	0.04	2	-0.04	14	64%	-0.02
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	5	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	6	14%	-0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	6	17%	-0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.21,-0.27	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	0.00	16	29%	-0.20	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.5	29.4	15.7	26.1	2.5	40.3	144.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +18.6%

MIA -1.6%

CLE +13.4%

CLE +16.7%

CLE +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	16.1	16.8	15.5	82.8	84.1	101.6
season	16.3	15.1		94.6	94.6
opponent	14.9	15.9		104.3	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	16.0	16.7	17.6	16.1
CLE	14.8	17.6	17.6	17.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	15	15	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.09	3	-5	8	21.1	15.1	6.02	18.9	16.3	2.54
Rasual Butler	16	17	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-7	12	16.1	16.2	-0.03	17.8	16.5	1.32
Malik Allen	53	54	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	0	-2	15.9	16.5	-0.58	16.3	17.5	-1.16
Sean Marks	6	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-1	0	14.0	16.3	-2.31	17.4	16.7	0.68
Vladimir Stepania	41	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-6	10	18.3	14.2	4.05	18.3	15.4	2.96
Mike James	37	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-4	6	17.3	15.3	2.04	16.1	17.3	-1.20
Eddie Jones	59	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.49	2	-4	6	15.2	18.2	-3.04	16.7	16.9	-0.13
Caron Butler	76	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.40	-5	3	-8	16.1	16.3	-0.14	16.7	17.4	-0.76
Brian Grant	72	72	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.41	-8	6	-14	15.7	18.3	-2.64	16.4	18.3	-1.90
Travis Best	60	61	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.53	-10	8	-18	14.7	19.4	-4.78	16.2	18.0	-1.73

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Smush Parker	45	44	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.59	4	-2	6	16.9	16.6	0.35	17.2	15.0	2.23
Jumaine Jones	56	56	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.58	1	1	0	15.2	19.4	-4.21	14.6	18.9	-4.23
Carlos Boozer	40	40	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.53	1	1	0	16.2	17.2	-1.03	15.4	16.8	-1.43
Ricky Davis	80	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-2	6	16.9	15.2	1.66	15.4	22.3	-6.95
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	59	60	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	-4	10	16.9	16.4	0.57	15.7	17.1	-1.34
Milt Palacio	53	53	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	2	-2	16.2	17.6	-1.35	15.6	16.9	-1.30
Michael Stewart	4	3	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	0	2	14.7	16.9	-2.11	19.0	16.0	2.95
DeSagana Diop	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	1	0	17.7	16.7	0.97	20.5	15.8	4.67
Chris Mihm	8	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	3	-4	16.6	16.8	-0.15	13.9	16.4	-2.52
Tyrone Hill	51	50	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.11	-1	3	-4	17.4	15.8	1.59	18.0	13.6	4.35
Darius Miles	38	37	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.03	-7	9	-16	18.7	15.3	3.48	18.1	14.7	3.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.55,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 95, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.28,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.68,0.99,1	92.9%
MEM 100, ORL 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.51,0.42,0.19,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.32,0.46,0.55,0.73,1	92.1%
DEN 89, LAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.43,0.84,1	92.0%