NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	85		Excitement	3.1 [1148]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +12.0%
Orlando Magic	111		Comeback	1.1 [1121]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): -13.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.15	-0.00	0.08	16	71%	0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mills	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.00	0.05	8	75%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	4	45%	0.00	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.16	0.00	-0.14	10	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	55%	-0.01	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00
Oscar Torres	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	2	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.13	-0.00	-0.07	6	28%	-0.03	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	9	35%	-0.03	4	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.18	-0.00	-0.05	7	14%	-0.05	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.00	25	61%	0.13	1	-0.01	9	78%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	63%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	7	69%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	7	43%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	3	12%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	13	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	-0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	4	21%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	12	50%	0.01	4	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	32.4	16.8	26.3	2.4	30.2	134.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +37.3%

GSW -4.6%

ORL +1.2%

ORL +15.8%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.9	15.5	89.5	113.3	101.6
season	14.6	14.6		105.3	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.1		103.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	17.0	13.6	14.0	15.5	14.9
ORL	14.4	12.6	14.8	18.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oscar Torres	15	15	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-29	32	13.1	15.2	-2.12	14.2	15.1	-0.86
Mike Dunleavy	30	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-24	22	14.8	15.0	-0.12	17.2	13.9	3.32
Danny Fortson	37	38	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.12	-7	-19	12	14.6	15.1	-0.44	17.8	13.1	4.67
Erick Dampier	25	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.10	-8	-18	10	15.0	14.9	0.11	12.7	15.8	-3.15
Chris Mills	47	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-22	18	13.4	16.4	-2.99	16.5	13.4	3.16
Jiri Welsch	28	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-16	6	15.3	14.8	0.52	17.0	14.1	2.85
Earl Boykins	56	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-19	12	14.9	14.9	0.03	16.9	12.4	4.51
Adonal Foyle	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.08	-11	-15	4	14.7	15.1	-0.31	14.9	15.0	-0.08
Gilbert Arenas	54	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.23	-18	-8	-10	14.4	15.5	-1.09	13.6	16.8	-3.20
Jason Richardson	36	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.21	-20	-6	-14	16.5	13.9	2.60	12.8	16.3	-3.50
Troy Murphy	48	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.31	-24	-2	-22	15.5	14.3	1.18	12.3	17.5	-5.16
Antawn Jamison	55	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.18	-22	-4	-18	15.7	13.8	1.88	13.9	16.5	-2.59

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	73	70	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.50	36	-10	46	13.6	18.8	-5.14	15.7	12.8	2.87
Tracy McGrady	70	67	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.34	28	-2	30	13.2	19.2	-6.05	15.6	13.4	2.16
Shawn Kemp	57	53	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.17	22	4	18	13.6	16.7	-3.06	15.6	14.1	1.47
Grant Hill	58	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.36	24	2	22	14.2	16.0	-1.89	14.9	14.9	0.04
Pat Garrity	48	46	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.17	17	9	8	14.2	15.6	-1.41	16.1	13.8	2.31
Pat Burke	51	49	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.10	9	17	-8	15.4	14.5	0.88	13.8	16.1	-2.31
Ryan Humphrey	43	43	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	26	-26	17.7	12.7	4.98	14.4	15.3	-0.87
Andrew DeClercq	33	35	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.12	5	21	-16	15.6	14.6	1.07	14.0	15.4	-1.45
Jeryl Sasser	23	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	27	-28	17.9	14.0	3.90	13.9	15.2	-1.32
Olumide Oyedeji	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	27	-28	21.1	14.4	6.75	14.6	14.9	-0.37
Jacque Vaughn	26	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.21	-9	35	-44	18.2	13.7	4.49	12.8	15.7	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
MEM 74, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
DET 81, CLE 104	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%