NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	102		Excitement	7.3 [343]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +17.7%
Golden State Warriors	106		Comeback	2.3 [189]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -17.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	17	69%	0.18	0	0.00	18	67%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.08	-0.01	12	55%	-0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	13	45%	0.02	1	-0.13	3	100%	0.07
Kobe Bryant	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.14	-0.01	12	61%	-0.02	5	-0.15	7	86%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.02	-0.00	17	76%	0.30	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	6	57%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	10	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.05
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	16	46%	0.02	4	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.12	0.01	14	69%	0.12	4	-0.22	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	30.2	16.5	29.8	1.8	39.4	145.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +54.2%

LAL -26.1%

GSW +25.2%

LAL -5.7%

GSW +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	GSW	NBA	LAL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	15.5	109.7	112.8	101.6
season	15.4	14.6		105.0	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.1		106.8	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.7	17.2	15.8	14.7	15.3
GSW	15.1	13.3	14.9	18.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	77	77	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.41	12	-16	28	14.7	18.2	-3.51	15.1	17.1	-1.95
Kareem Rush	7	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	0	-4	16.9	15.2	1.64	13.9	15.6	-1.73
Derek Fisher	66	68	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-8	12	15.3	15.4	-0.04	15.3	15.8	-0.54
Samaki Walker	25	26	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	4	-12	15.2	15.4	-0.20	16.7	15.0	1.71
Brian Shaw	32	32	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	5	-14	14.9	15.6	-0.72	15.3	15.5	-0.17
Rick Fox	47	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	6	-16	16.6	14.1	2.44	14.2	16.7	-2.47
Shaquille O'Neal	74	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-5	6	15.8	13.4	2.42	15.9	13.8	2.04
Kobe Bryant	81	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-5	6	15.4	14.9	0.49	15.8	13.6	2.22
Devean George	56	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	3	-10	14.6	16.5	-1.94	15.8	14.9	0.93

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	47	47	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.28	15	-11	26	15.8	15.1	0.62	15.7	15.0	0.77
Chris Mills	22	21	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.12	18	-14	32	16.9	15.0	1.84	17.3	14.8	2.51
Jason Richardson	87	86	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-1	6	15.4	15.9	-0.43	15.4	14.4	0.99
Adonal Foyle	42	39	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.35	1	3	-2	16.8	14.3	2.49	15.9	14.9	0.95
Danny Fortson	45	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	2	0	16.4	14.6	1.89	14.3	16.3	-1.98
Antawn Jamison	77	77	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	5	-6	14.7	18.8	-4.04	15.5	14.8	0.64
Erick Dampier	29	30	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	14.9	15.7	-0.81	16.5	14.8	1.71
Mike Dunleavy	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	3	-2	12.6	15.8	-3.19	14.5	15.5	-1.01
Gilbert Arenas	66	65	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.32	-15	19	-34	15.1	16.3	-1.18	14.5	17.2	-2.73
Troy Murphy	44	46	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	12	-20	15.0	15.8	-0.77	14.9	15.8	-0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.71,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.81,0.93,0.89,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 99, NOK 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.91,1	93.6%
HOU 97, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,1	92.5%
LAC 96, MEM 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.44,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.95,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.84,0.85,1	92.5%