NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	8.4 [195]		MVP	Eric Williams (BOS): +21.0%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	2.4 [200]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -23.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.10	0.00	10	75%	0.21	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Vin Baker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	18	46%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03
Shammond Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.11	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Walter McCarty	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.23,-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	-0.00	21	48%	-0.08	5	-0.16	14	86%	0.08

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.00	14	53%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.16	3	-0.20	7	86%	0.08
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.11	-0.01	21	54%	0.05	2	-0.12	4	75%	-0.03
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	9	45%	-0.00	1	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	13	33%	-0.14	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23	-0.23	-0.09	-0.17	-0.03	6	40%	-0.07	3	-0.16	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	1.7	27.1	16.7	26.1	2.5	33.4	136.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.4%

ORL -6.5%

ORL -12.8%

BOS +32.7%

ORL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.4	15.5	107.4	102.1	101.6
season	15.6	14.6		99.3	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.5		103.1	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	16.2	14.7	17.0	15.9
ORL	15.9	13.8	16.6	11.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	55	56	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.26	16	-11	27	14.6	17.6	-2.98	13.4	15.9	-2.47
Shammond Williams	61	61	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-2	9	15.6	16.4	-0.75	13.2	16.7	-3.53
Walter McCarty	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	6	-7	16.2	15.1	1.16	14.6	14.0	0.68
Vin Baker	26	25	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.05	12	-7	19	15.3	16.1	-0.73	16.0	13.9	2.11
Paul Pierce	78	78	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.30	1	4	-3	15.9	15.8	0.06	14.6	13.8	0.75
Antoine Walker	88	87	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	5	-5	16.3	10.9	5.42	14.5	14.2	0.21
Tony Delk	48	47	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	2	1	16.1	15.6	0.47	15.9	13.0	2.83
Tony Battie	53	54	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.05	-13	18	-31	16.4	15.2	1.22	14.5	14.4	0.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	16	14	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-12	19	12.9	14.8	-1.88	17.3	15.6	1.66
Shawn Kemp	51	52	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-9	13	16.1	12.5	3.53	16.6	15.0	1.68
Pat Burke	17	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	0	-5	13.3	14.7	-1.40	13.9	16.2	-2.38
Pat Garrity	81	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	14.4	14.4	0.02	16.2	13.6	2.62
Andrew DeClercq	14	15	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	7	-19	13.9	14.5	-0.60	12.4	16.5	-4.13
Tracy McGrady	81	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	14.6	13.6	0.94	15.9	15.5	0.43
Darrell Armstrong	64	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-5	5	13.3	16.8	-3.46	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Grant Hill	65	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-1	-3	14.7	13.8	0.94	16.3	15.0	1.25
Mike Miller	86	86	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.30	-14	9	-23	14.6	13.3	1.22	15.5	19.1	-3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.71,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.38,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.22,0.31,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 120, GSW 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.17,0	91.7%
MIN 89, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.05,0	91.7%
SAC 105, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.57,0.33,0.59,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.11,0.1,0,0	91.5%