NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	86		Excitement	6.1 [572]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (NOH): +12.5%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	1.1 [1076]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -23.9%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	19	72%	0.25	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.02
George Lynch	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
David Wesley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	15	53%	-0.06	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Stacey Augmon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.05	0.03	8	56%	-0.02	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Alexander	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	6	33%	-0.10	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	0.00	3	60%	-0.00	7	-0.22	4	50%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	26	51%	0.09	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	9	59%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Bruno Sundov	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.24	-0.06	-0.06	24	46%	-0.04	8	-0.20	17	76%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	31.3	15.5	25.5	2.3	30.7	130.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +16.0%

BOS +0.7%

BOS +6.3%

BOS +27.4%

NOH -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	BOS	NBA	NOH	BOS	NBA
this game	14.8	15.7	15.5	91.5	100.0	101.6
season	15.9	15.6		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		99.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.3	15.6	13.6	14.9	14.8
BOS	14.7	14.4	14.1	20.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	29	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-8	7	14.0	15.2	-1.23	15.7	15.6	0.12
Jamaal Magloire	53	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-5	1	15.4	14.1	1.24	16.6	14.5	2.11
Courtney Alexander	56	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-1	-7	14.6	15.1	-0.44	14.6	17.2	-2.60
Stacey Augmon	46	46	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-6	3	15.3	14.4	0.95	16.1	15.2	0.93
George Lynch	38	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	14.9	14.8	0.13	14.5	16.4	-1.92
P.J. Brown	68	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.18	-7	-2	-5	14.7	15.1	-0.36	15.5	16.0	-0.43
David Wesley	88	89	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-3	-3	14.6	18.2	-3.58	16.0	11.2	4.79
Jamal Mashburn	92	93	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	1	-11	14.9	11.0	3.90	15.8	10.5	5.26

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	87	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	0	9	15.8	14.0	1.80	14.8	15.4	-0.69
Paul Pierce	89	86	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.24	9	0	9	15.7	14.8	0.87	14.6	17.2	-2.66
Shammond Williams	59	59	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-6	21	15.1	16.6	-1.59	15.2	14.3	0.90
Eric Williams	66	65	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	5	-1	16.4	14.0	2.38	13.9	16.8	-2.85
Vin Baker	20	20	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	0	9	18.2	15.0	3.29	16.3	14.4	1.88
Tony Battie	71	70	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	7	-5	14.7	18.5	-3.87	14.2	16.7	-2.54
Walter McCarty	37	38	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	4	1	14.0	16.7	-2.71	16.5	13.7	2.78
Tony Delk	42	43	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	15	-21	16.4	15.1	1.31	14.8	14.8	-0.01
Bruno Sundov	4	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	11	-13	20.0	15.5	4.54	18.7	14.6	4.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.5%
IND 96, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.74,0.85,0.97,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.7%
CLE 102, GSW 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%