NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	3.2 [1120]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +6.3%
Detroit Pistons	82		Comeback	1.1 [902]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -17.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	28	58%	0.07	2	-0.00	17	88%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	16	61%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adam Harrington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	7	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	7	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	10	41%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.09	0.00	0.09	5	90%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.02	0.04	12	58%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	6	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	36%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	9	35%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.04	18	43%	-0.09	6	-0.09	8	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.0	29.0	16.8	25.6	2.4	25.6	127.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.1%

DAL +15.1%

DET -6.8%

DAL +20.6%

DAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	16.5	15.5	109.7	90.1	101.6
season	15.1	16.8		108.6	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.3		97.8	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.1	14.0	11.9	23.4	14.8
DET	15.7	17.3	18.9	13.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	70	68	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.42	34	-14	48	12.9	20.8	-7.94	17.8	12.7	5.11
Michael Finley	79	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.36	28	-8	36	13.6	21.9	-8.25	17.3	12.4	4.88
Adrian Griffin	38	36	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.14	15	5	10	12.7	16.3	-3.66	17.1	16.1	1.06
Walt Williams	42	41	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.18	16	4	12	12.6	16.7	-4.15	17.2	15.9	1.32
Steve Nash	49	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.14	14	6	8	11.7	18.3	-6.58	17.1	15.7	1.38
Eduardo Najera	37	36	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	13	-6	15.3	14.6	0.74	15.9	16.9	-0.97
Avery Johnson	44	43	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	14	-8	18.3	11.7	6.58	15.7	17.1	-1.38
Shawn Bradley	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.19	12	8	4	15.3	14.6	0.75	17.3	15.9	1.37
Mark Strickland	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	28	-36	22.2	13.8	8.40	12.1	17.1	-5.06
Adam Harrington	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	28	-36	23.2	14.0	9.27	11.9	17.0	-5.09
Popeye Jones	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	31	-42	22.1	13.7	8.40	12.2	17.2	-4.95
Raja Bell	37	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	25	-30	18.2	12.6	5.55	14.9	17.6	-2.75

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mehmet Okur	20	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-30	40	13.8	17.2	-3.43	23.4	12.7	10.71
Hubert Davis	39	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-23	26	14.8	17.7	-2.98	18.3	12.2	6.10
Corliss Williamson	37	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-15	10	16.0	16.8	-0.75	16.2	14.0	2.24
Michael Curry	14	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.16	-9	-11	2	19.1	16.0	3.16	12.4	15.3	-2.92
Zeljko Rebraca	35	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-24	28	15.2	17.2	-2.02	19.1	12.3	6.88
Tayshaun Prince	33	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-19	18	15.8	16.9	-1.12	14.9	14.8	0.10
Jon Barry	40	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-13	6	15.6	17.2	-1.56	18.3	12.2	6.05
Richard Hamilton	58	60	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	0.17	-18	-2	-16	17.1	15.3	1.79	12.3	19.5	-7.18
Clifford Robinson	67	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.34	-26	6	-32	17.1	14.8	2.23	12.8	21.2	-8.46
Ben Wallace	60	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.40	-28	8	-36	17.4	14.6	2.82	12.2	20.2	-8.02
Chucky Atkins	52	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.21	-23	3	-26	17.7	14.8	2.98	12.2	18.3	-6.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, CHA 81	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
PHI 103, PHX 83	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
SAS 106, LAC 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%