NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	85		Excitement	4.7 [869]		MVP	Travis Best (MIA): +8.8%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.5 [204]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -19.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	12	77%	0.11	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	8	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Soumaila Samake	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.04	14	60%	0.00	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.01
Rick Fox	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	48%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	15	38%	-0.13	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	12	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	8	81%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	11	52%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	11	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.10	0.03	-0.06	18	45%	0.04	4	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Malik Allen	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	28.4	15.5	26.2	2.7	32.6	135.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.4%

LAL -3.0%

MIA +4.8%

MIA +27.7%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	17.7	15.5	93.4	107.8	101.6
season	15.4	16.3		105.0	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.1		100.7	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.8	13.9	14.9	14.2	14.2
MIA	18.3	17.4	17.9	17.1	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	7.0	14.3	-7.26	39.0	17.4	21.57
Tracy Murray	1	0	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-12	12	24.0	14.1	9.93	0.0	17.7	-17.67
Soumaila Samake	4	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-8	4	8.5	14.4	-5.94	13.2	17.9	-4.73
Kareem Rush	29	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-10	8	12.8	14.8	-1.98	18.2	17.4	0.74
Slava Medvedenko	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-9	6	13.5	14.4	-0.93	18.3	17.5	0.80
Mark Madsen	27	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	-4	-4	14.6	14.0	0.65	17.1	17.9	-0.81
Kobe Bryant	60	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	-9	6	14.6	13.3	1.34	17.6	17.9	-0.29
Shaquille O'Neal	60	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.17	-3	-9	6	14.9	12.7	2.22	18.0	17.1	0.84
Robert Horry	67	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-6	0	13.7	15.4	-1.63	17.8	17.4	0.40
Derek Fisher	81	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-6	0	14.2	14.1	0.09	17.7	17.1	0.66
Brian Shaw	28	28	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	1	-14	13.4	14.5	-1.08	16.5	18.2	-1.75
Rick Fox	74	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	0	-12	14.7	11.9	2.82	17.6	17.8	-0.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	84	86	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	1	10	17.7	17.7	0.00	14.3	11.8	2.51
Vladimir Stepania	39	40	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-1	14	17.5	17.8	-0.36	13.5	14.7	-1.12
Mike James	46	47	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	-6	24	17.0	18.4	-1.36	13.6	14.7	-1.11
Caron Butler	85	85	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	2	8	17.5	20.6	-3.11	14.0	17.0	-3.02
LaPhonso Ellis	46	46	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	0	12	17.5	17.9	-0.39	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Brian Grant	51	52	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	10	-8	17.9	17.4	0.50	14.2	14.2	-0.01
Eddie House	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	9	-6	19.0	17.5	1.52	14.6	14.1	0.52
Travis Best	44	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.23	-6	18	-24	18.4	17.0	1.36	14.7	13.6	1.11
Malik Allen	44	44	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.12	-3	15	-18	17.8	17.5	0.25	15.2	13.2	1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 79, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
LAL 82, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
CHI 98, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%