NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	9.5 [90]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +56.0%
Golden State Warriors	91		Comeback	6.9 [217]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -31.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.56	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.56,0.56	0.19	0.37	-0.00	18	77%	0.61	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Thomas	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08	-0.07	0.12	-0.02	10	30%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	15	44%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Ervin Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,-0.02,0,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	-0.00	5	57%	-0.02	1	-0.10	4	50%	-0.09
Jason Caffey	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	6	6%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Michael Redd	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	12	25%	-0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	4	75%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.01	-0.03	14	67%	0.12	2	-0.05	18	83%	-0.09
Oscar Torres	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dean Oliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	13	31%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	0.04
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	12	55%	-0.05	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.05
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.17	-0.03	10	17%	-0.25	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.31	-0.31	-0.07	-0.26	-0.01	16	54%	0.07	5	-0.38	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.6	29.2	15.6	25.4	3.6	33.1	132.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +65.0%

GSW -31.5%

GSW -10.8%

MIL +29.6%

GSW -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	16.8	15.5	106.7	101.1	101.6
season	15.4	14.6		106.3	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.8	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.5	15.6	14.8	13.7	15.4
GSW	14.5	17.1	17.3	18.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	63	65	1.04	-0.54	1.59	0.52	18	-14	32	14.2	18.2	-3.99	18.5	12.2	6.32
Kevin Ollie	28	30	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-6	16	16.0	15.1	0.82	15.0	17.6	-2.65
Dan Gadzuric	30	32	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-5	14	14.1	16.1	-1.92	18.1	16.0	2.11
Michael Redd	47	47	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	3	-2	16.2	14.5	1.62	15.2	18.5	-3.34
Toni Kukoc	45	45	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	1	2	17.0	13.8	3.18	16.5	17.1	-0.60
Ervin Johnson	59	58	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	9	-14	16.1	14.1	1.92	16.0	18.1	-2.11
Sam Cassell	61	61	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.17	-6	10	-16	15.1	16.0	-0.82	17.7	14.8	2.86
Tim Thomas	64	65	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	10	-16	14.4	18.0	-3.66	17.1	15.9	1.23
Jason Caffey	25	24	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	3	-2	17.0	14.8	2.16	15.1	17.4	-2.30
Anthony Mason	23	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	9	-14	15.1	15.5	-0.37	16.3	16.9	-0.62

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	56	57	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-9	14	17.5	15.6	1.94	15.3	15.6	-0.25
Jiri Welsch	3	2	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-4	4	15.0	16.8	-1.83	8.0	15.6	-7.57
Oscar Torres	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-4	4	0.0	16.8	-16.77	0.0	15.6	-15.58
Dean Oliver	21	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-1	-2	14.5	17.4	-2.93	17.0	14.9	2.03
Danny Fortson	9	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	1	-6	19.9	16.4	3.47	13.7	15.6	-1.93
Adonal Foyle	14	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-1	-2	16.7	16.8	-0.06	12.6	16.0	-3.37
Erick Dampier	76	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-3	2	16.8	16.7	0.06	16.0	12.6	3.37
Troy Murphy	81	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-5	6	16.4	19.9	-3.47	15.6	13.7	1.93
Antawn Jamison	78	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-3	2	17.6	11.5	6.08	15.5	14.8	0.65
Mike Dunleavy	36	35	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	3	-10	15.8	17.4	-1.65	14.3	16.1	-1.84
Jason Richardson	76	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.41	-6	2	-8	16.6	17.9	-1.38	15.9	12.9	2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.71,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.28,0.47,0.36,0.67,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 103, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.68,0.42,0	90.5%
HOU 100, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.55,0.29,0	90.5%
IND 86, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.41,0.55,0.68,0.46,0.32,0.42,0	89.5%