NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	4.6 [878]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +13.2%
Boston Celtics	86		Comeback	1.4 [696]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -16.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.01	-0.03	20	67%	0.19	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Walt Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Adam Harrington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Adrian Griffin	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.15	0.04	-0.05	18	33%	-0.00	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	0.01	-0.00	14	44%	-0.00	6	-0.14	4	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	22	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	64%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
J.R. Bremer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.06	13	68%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.03	0.05	20	47%	-0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	3	12%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.02	20	22%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	28.4	16.7	28.5	2.7	26.5	128.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +47.9%

DAL +5.3%

DAL +1.4%

BOS -7.9%

DAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	BOS	NBA	DAL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.3	15.4	15.5	103.2	91.5	101.6
season	15.1	15.6		108.6	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		99.9	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	14.3	14.0	19.5	15.3
BOS	14.8	17.8	14.8	14.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	68	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-1	13	15.4	15.0	0.37	16.1	13.7	2.31
Michael Finley	78	77	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.09	10	1	9	15.6	13.5	2.13	15.1	16.7	-1.63
Walt Williams	42	42	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	2	7	17.0	13.9	3.05	16.2	14.7	1.44
Dirk Nowitzki	84	82	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	9	-7	15.5	12.9	2.65	15.0	18.1	-3.11
Eduardo Najera	65	67	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	5	1	13.5	19.2	-5.70	15.7	14.6	1.04
Steve Nash	64	64	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	9	-7	16.1	13.5	2.54	14.8	16.6	-1.85
Avery Johnson	31	32	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	2	7	13.8	16.0	-2.18	15.9	15.1	0.86
Raja Bell	21	21	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.04	4	7	-3	13.6	15.8	-2.18	16.8	15.0	1.79
Adam Harrington	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	9	-7	22.0	15.2	6.81	5.5	15.6	-10.09
Adrian Griffin	16	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	12	-13	15.7	15.2	0.51	13.4	15.8	-2.39

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Bremer	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-9	7	5.5	15.6	-10.09	22.0	15.2	6.81
Tony Battie	47	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-7	3	14.3	16.4	-2.11	15.8	14.8	1.00
Walter McCarty	29	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-6	1	15.0	15.5	-0.54	14.4	15.6	-1.24
Eric Williams	55	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-11	11	14.5	16.6	-2.04	15.5	15.0	0.51
Tony Delk	75	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-9	7	14.6	18.4	-3.82	16.0	12.4	3.57
Shammond Williams	60	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-4	-3	15.9	14.4	1.46	15.9	14.3	1.61
Vin Baker	42	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-3	-5	17.7	13.5	4.28	14.0	16.2	-2.20
Antoine Walker	83	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.10	-12	1	-13	15.9	11.3	4.64	14.9	18.7	-3.76
Paul Pierce	77	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.11	-15	4	-19	15.5	14.9	0.60	14.9	16.9	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 90, NYK 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.8%
GSW 90, NYK 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SAS 116, SAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%