NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	6.4 [525]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +19.3%
New York Knicks	88		Comeback	1.0 [899]		LVP	Lee Nailon (NYK): -13.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.01	0.14	-0.04	19	50%	0.19	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	9	90%	0.22	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.05
Toni Kukoc	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	73%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kevin Ollie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.00	14	53%	0.03	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.03
Anthony Mason	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	4	58%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	10	50%	-0.02	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	24	54%	0.16	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	40%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	10	58%	0.06	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Shandon Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Charlie Ward	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	13	42%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	8	56%	-0.01	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.3	26.6	16.7	25.1	2.4	30.3	124.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +52.6%

NYK -4.6%

NYK -9.0%

MIL +11.4%

NYK -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NYK	NBA	MIL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.1	16.9	15.5	107.8	97.8	101.6
season	15.4	15.6		106.3	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		104.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.9	14.1	15.6	14.1	15.1
NYK	16.6	18.0	15.7	17.2	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	63	62	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	1	7	15.2	15.0	0.23	16.7	17.3	-0.59
Anthony Mason	65	66	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	1	7	15.4	14.4	1.06	16.3	18.4	-2.10
Sam Cassell	58	59	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	1	7	15.2	14.9	0.29	16.9	16.9	0.01
Toni Kukoc	49	49	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	0	9	15.0	15.2	-0.18	17.6	16.1	1.48
Michael Redd	49	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	3	3	14.7	15.6	-0.94	16.8	17.0	-0.13
Dan Gadzuric	44	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	6	-3	14.9	15.3	-0.37	16.9	16.8	0.11
Kevin Ollie	32	31	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	8	-7	14.9	15.2	-0.29	16.9	16.9	-0.01
Jason Caffey	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	6	-3	14.6	15.4	-0.81	17.1	16.8	0.29
Tim Thomas	56	56	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	10	-11	15.6	14.3	1.28	17.1	16.6	0.47

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Ward	52	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-10	11	15.7	18.6	-2.90	15.6	14.5	1.03
Travis Knight	7	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-8	7	18.9	16.7	2.15	11.1	15.5	-4.31
Clar. Weatherspoon	74	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	16.1	20.2	-4.10	15.2	14.7	0.55
Lee Nailon	40	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-8	7	17.3	16.5	0.80	15.2	15.1	0.15
Shandon Anderson	57	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	16.6	17.4	-0.81	14.6	16.2	-1.60
Othella Harrington	24	25	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-2	-5	19.9	15.8	4.14	15.3	15.0	0.27
Kurt Thomas	71	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	16.7	17.5	-0.76	15.5	13.9	1.57
Howard Eisley	38	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	1	-11	18.6	15.7	2.90	14.5	15.6	-1.03
Allan Houston	87	86	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	16.6	24.3	-7.71	15.4	9.7	5.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.38,0.25,0.32,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.19,0.1,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.36,0.22,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	93.2%
SEA 92, DEN 84	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	93.2%
POR 102, LAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.41,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.32,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.05,0.1,0.09,0	92.9%