NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	78		Excitement	5.4 [714]		MVP	Mike James (MIA): +7.8%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.1 [373]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (SAC): -27.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	1	125%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	14	61%	0.10	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	7	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	3	12%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	9	70%	0.09	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	60%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	8	36%	-0.06	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	13	25%	-0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.17	-0.09	0.02	17	29%	-0.24	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	10	40%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	16	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	14	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	11	50%	-0.04	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	15	43%	0.02	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	30.4	15.4	22.4	2.4	27.3	124.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.9%

SAC -3.3%

MIA +7.9%

MIA +8.6%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.3	15.5	85.7	93.6	101.6
season	14.0	16.3		104.4	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.7		100.7	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.5	16.0	14.3	14.4	14.8
MIA	15.5	16.7	15.6	17.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	68	72	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.15	6	-16	22	13.9	17.4	-3.48	16.3	16.4	-0.06
Bobby Jackson	68	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-10	10	14.5	15.7	-1.21	15.5	18.7	-3.15
Lawrence Funderburke	25	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-5	0	16.2	14.2	2.00	16.2	16.4	-0.15
Hedo Turkoglu	33	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-3	-4	15.2	14.6	0.57	18.5	15.2	3.26
Doug Christie	74	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-6	2	14.7	15.4	-0.69	16.0	17.9	-1.98
Gerald Wallace	41	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-5	0	15.4	14.3	1.18	17.1	15.7	1.38
Damon Jones	23	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	0	-10	15.7	14.5	1.21	18.7	15.5	3.15
Peja Stojakovic	65	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.01	-13	3	-16	14.4	15.7	-1.26	16.2	16.5	-0.30
Vlade Divac	58	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.19	-12	2	-14	15.1	14.2	0.86	15.3	18.3	-3.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	79	77	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	4	2	16.3	16.6	-0.33	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Rasual Butler	36	35	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-1	12	17.3	15.7	1.60	15.3	14.5	0.80
Vladimir Stepania	36	37	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	1	8	18.0	15.3	2.77	15.1	14.6	0.53
Mike James	35	35	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	3	4	18.1	15.3	2.86	15.4	14.4	0.94
Malik Allen	69	66	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	5	0	15.6	18.4	-2.78	14.7	15.0	-0.29
LaPhonso Ellis	25	25	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	5	0	18.4	15.6	2.78	15.0	14.7	0.29
Travis Best	59	56	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	7	-4	15.3	18.1	-2.86	14.4	15.4	-0.94
Caron Butler	73	70	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	7	-4	15.9	17.8	-1.92	14.7	15.2	-0.52
Brian Grant	58	54	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	9	-8	15.3	18.0	-2.77	14.6	15.1	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.77,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 86, CHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.93,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CLE 86, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.71,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,1,1	94.1%
SAC 89, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%