NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	87		Excitement	7.5 [321]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +24.5%
San Antonio Spurs	89		Comeback	1.3 [832]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -24.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.24	0.06	0.19	0.00	21	57%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.00	17	64%	0.10	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.07
Avery Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Greg Buckner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Raef LaFrentz	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	6	33%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.25	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	25	35%	-0.19	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.12	0.00	5	92%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.15,0.13	0.13	-0.04	0.15	-0.02	20	57%	0.29	3	-0.17	18	72%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	6	56%	0.04	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Jason Hart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	12	45%	-0.04	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.06
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	10	33%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.8	31.0	18.5	31.8	2.0	46.1	161.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +46.4%

DAL -4.8%

SAS +11.4%

DAL -9.9%

SAS +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	15.6	94.6	96.7	102.3
season	14.8	15.8		109.6	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.5		98.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.5	16.4	16.5	14.9	14.9
SAS	15.8	17.0	15.6	17.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	15	14	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.07	11	-13	24	13.2	15.3	-2.07	19.7	15.8	3.95
Avery Johnson	39	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-4	6	17.3	13.2	4.03	17.2	15.7	1.45
Nick Van Exel	68	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.54	13	-15	28	14.5	16.1	-1.55	18.0	11.8	6.19
Steve Nash	38	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	10	-22	14.3	15.4	-1.10	15.2	17.2	-2.02
Eduardo Najera	30	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.39	2	-4	6	15.7	14.6	1.09	17.9	15.6	2.32
Dirk Nowitzki	89	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-3	4	14.8	20.3	-5.58	16.9	5.5	11.36
Michael Finley	90	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-3	4	14.9	18.0	-3.13	16.4	16.5	-0.13
Raef LaFrentz	49	49	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.06	-14	12	-26	15.9	13.9	2.02	14.6	18.4	-3.80
Greg Buckner	39	39	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	9	-20	13.0	16.3	-3.31	13.7	18.3	-4.65

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	50	51	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.54	9	-7	16	16.4	16.4	0.02	15.9	13.8	2.13
Steven Smith	24	25	0.61	-0.12	0.73	0.20	14	-12	26	14.2	17.1	-2.98	14.0	15.3	-1.28
Danny Ferry	41	39	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	-3	8	18.1	15.0	3.16	16.2	14.0	2.21
Tony Parker	70	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	-2	6	16.0	17.5	-1.49	14.3	16.9	-2.64
Tim Duncan	87	87	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	1	0	16.0	22.0	-5.95	14.3	25.2	-10.86
Bruce Bowen	61	63	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.41	-9	11	-20	16.2	16.7	-0.56	14.3	16.2	-1.91
Charles Smith	8	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	1	0	14.0	16.6	-2.60	17.2	14.7	2.54
Antonio Daniels	63	63	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	5	-8	16.3	16.5	-0.17	15.8	13.1	2.67
Jason Hart	9	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	8	-14	20.8	15.9	4.89	13.3	15.1	-1.78
Malik Rose	47	46	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.01	-6	8	-14	17.0	15.8	1.20	15.0	14.9	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 111, MEM 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.97,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.91,1	94.6%
CHI 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.84,1	94.1%
PHX 97, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.71,0.84,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.67,0.52,0.66,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%