NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	6.5 [506]		MVP	Eddie House (MIA): +10.4%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	3.2 [518]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -11.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	86%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Pope	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	11	54%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Ray Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	13	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	13	56%	-0.03	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Greg Anthony	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	11	41%	-0.05	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	20	44%	-0.08	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.01	0.01	12	79%	0.17	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	14	53%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	9	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	11	64%	0.10	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.05	-0.02	13	39%	0.07	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.7	27.0	14.8	27.2	2.5	37.8	134.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.6%

MIL -5.0%

MIA +32.4%

MIL -9.9%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.6	103.2	109.7	102.3
season	15.3	16.5		104.7	96.6
opponent	15.8	16.0		98.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	16.0	13.9	14.2	14.7
MIA	16.0	15.3	16.8	16.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	21	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-6	7	16.1	14.3	1.88	16.7	16.0	0.74
Mark Pope	26	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-6	7	14.0	15.0	-0.99	15.7	16.3	-0.61
Joel Przybilla	40	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-6	7	14.4	14.9	-0.49	16.4	15.9	0.44
Darvin Ham	19	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	13.7	14.9	-1.18	14.5	16.6	-2.13
Greg Anthony	49	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	5	-15	15.6	13.7	1.90	16.4	15.8	0.62
Ervin Johnson	44	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-2	-1	15.5	13.9	1.58	16.7	15.6	1.10
Sam Cassell	68	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-9	13	13.9	16.7	-2.83	15.8	16.9	-1.04
Ray Allen	45	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	0	-5	15.3	14.1	1.17	16.5	15.8	0.75
Glenn Robinson	75	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	14.0	17.4	-3.37	15.8	17.7	-1.93
Anthony Mason	83	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	0	-5	14.8	13.5	1.29	16.3	14.7	1.58

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	67	66	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.33	17	-12	29	16.0	16.3	-0.30	14.7	14.5	0.21
Eddie House	55	54	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-3	11	16.1	16.2	-0.05	14.8	14.5	0.23
Eddie Jones	61	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	1	3	16.2	16.0	0.15	14.1	15.7	-1.57
Rod Strickland	60	60	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	2	1	16.2	15.9	0.34	14.3	15.4	-1.10
LaPhonso Ellis	33	34	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	3	-1	15.9	16.2	-0.34	15.4	14.3	1.10
Alonzo Mourning	63	67	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	10	-15	16.3	15.8	0.53	14.2	16.0	-1.80
Kendall Gill	45	45	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	6	-7	15.9	16.3	-0.38	14.6	14.8	-0.16
Anthony Carter	32	33	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	5	-5	15.7	16.3	-0.58	15.5	14.2	1.33
Vladimir Stepania	49	50	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	8	-11	16.4	15.8	0.59	15.4	13.9	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.76,0.66,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.98,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 107, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.77,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.93,0.91,1	91.9%
ORL 85, WAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	91.5%
IND 88, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.68,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.91,1	91.3%