NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	8.4 [181]		MVP	Calbert Cheaney (DEN): +8.2%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	3.5 [735]		LVP	Kenny Satterfield (DEN): -22.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.03	18	58%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Mengke Bateer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	62%	0.05	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Donnell Harvey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.01	16	50%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.07,-0.03,-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	0.01	14	47%	-0.11	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.00	2	67%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.04	0.01	17	49%	0.03	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.08
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	57%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.08	-0.00	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	11	58%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	5	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.13
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.03	0.01	9	18%	-0.16	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	507.7	1.5	25.4	15.7	25.3	2.4	35.2	613.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -2.8%

DET +21.1%

DET +2.9%

DET +24.1%

DET +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	17.3	14.3	15.6	90.1	94.5	102.3
season	16.1	15.7		99.7	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.2		99.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.0	15.7	17.7	19.0	17.3
DET	14.3	14.3	16.6	12.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	63	61	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.23	15	-19	34	17.2	17.5	-0.26	15.4	12.1	3.28
Juwan Howard	72	72	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.22	9	-13	22	17.1	18.1	-0.93	15.0	11.9	3.08
Mengke Bateer	28	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-3	2	15.9	17.9	-2.01	16.1	13.6	2.52
Kenny Satterfield	68	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.39	8	-12	20	17.6	16.6	1.01	15.0	12.3	2.71
Carlos Arroyo	23	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	8	-20	16.6	17.6	-1.01	12.3	15.0	-2.71
Chris Andersen	42	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	4	-12	18.3	16.5	1.80	14.6	14.1	0.57
Zendon Hamilton	65	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	2	-8	18.1	15.4	2.71	13.8	15.8	-2.02
Donnell Harvey	64	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	1	-6	17.1	17.8	-0.65	13.6	16.0	-2.41
James Posey	30	32	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.21	-20	16	-36	16.6	17.7	-1.02	11.5	15.8	-4.32

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	45	44	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.47	8	-4	12	14.4	14.3	0.10	18.1	16.6	1.58
Corliss Williamson	55	54	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-6	16	12.8	16.7	-3.91	17.6	16.8	0.81
Ben Wallace	82	83	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-2	8	14.6	12.1	2.46	17.2	18.6	-1.43
Damon Jones	36	36	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	-10	24	13.2	15.0	-1.79	18.2	16.7	1.49
Jon Barry	53	55	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	-1	6	14.1	14.7	-0.61	17.1	17.7	-0.62
Zeljko Rebraca	18	16	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	-2	8	12.9	14.7	-1.80	17.5	17.3	0.22
Chucky Atkins	55	55	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.40	-10	14	-24	15.0	13.2	1.79	16.7	18.2	-1.49
Clifford Robinson	49	49	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	8	-12	15.4	13.1	2.34	16.9	17.8	-0.96
Jerry Stackhouse	62	63	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.22	-15	19	-34	15.1	12.6	2.51	17.1	17.7	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.47,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 81, LAL 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.99,1	89.7%
MIN 97, BKN 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.56,0.63,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.87,0.72,1	89.7%
NYK 88, BKN 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.65,0.72,1	89.5%