NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	72		Excitement	8.4 [187]		MVP	Chris Childs (TOR): +14.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	70		Comeback	5.3 [150]		LVP	Eric Snow (PHI): -39.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Childs	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.01	10	64%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.00	13	47%	0.10	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Eric Montross	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	15	37%	0.04	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.26	-0.04	-0.22	-0.00	6	33%	-0.17	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.33,-0.33,-0.28	-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	17	40%	-0.10	4	-0.18	6	67%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.05	-0.00	8	62%	0.10	5	-0.12	5	60%	0.04
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	13	57%	0.04	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.16,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.26	-0.01	14	37%	-0.20	3	-0.18	4	50%	-0.09
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.26,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.39	-0.39	-0.14	-0.24	0.01	17	32%	-0.36	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.6	27.4	16.6	29.0	2.0	38.2	142.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +36.2%

PHI -7.8%

TOR +19.4%

TOR +5.8%

PHI -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHI	NBA	TOR	PHI	NBA
this game	16.3	17.0	15.6	83.7	80.5	102.3
season	16.2	15.9		100.3	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.2	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.2	16.2	14.9	17.0	16.3
PHI	15.5	18.9	17.9	15.7	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	75	76	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.47	6	-4	10	16.0	18.5	-2.44	16.6	19.5	-2.95
Chris Childs	57	58	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.45	5	-3	8	16.4	16.3	0.08	17.2	16.5	0.72
Alvin Williams	77	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-3	8	16.6	13.7	2.97	17.1	15.9	1.20
Antonio Davis	75	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	1	0	16.7	14.1	2.56	16.5	20.5	-3.99
Hakeem Olajuwon	31	29	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	2	-2	15.6	16.7	-1.16	17.7	16.6	1.14
Keon Clark	35	38	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.27	-4	6	-10	17.1	15.8	1.23	16.7	17.1	-0.41
Eric Montross	40	41	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	-1	4	16.5	16.2	0.37	17.1	16.9	0.20
Jermaine Jackson	9	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	5	-8	13.7	16.6	-2.97	15.9	17.1	-1.20
Jerome Williams	31	30	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	5	-8	15.9	16.6	-0.66	18.1	16.4	1.78

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Harpring	48	47	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.10	2	-4	6	17.0	16.9	0.03	17.0	15.5	1.58
Vonteego Cummings	42	38	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-4	6	16.8	17.1	-0.26	16.6	16.1	0.41
Derrick Coleman	65	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.42	7	-9	16	16.4	18.7	-2.36	17.1	14.1	3.00
Derrick McKey	18	17	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-1	0	17.7	16.8	0.88	15.6	16.5	-0.85
Eric Snow	71	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-5	8	16.5	19.2	-2.72	16.6	15.3	1.33
Corie Blount	32	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	5	-12	17.7	16.5	1.24	15.3	17.0	-1.66
Dikembe Mutombo	75	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	1	-4	17.3	14.7	2.67	15.9	18.7	-2.72
Aaron McKie	65	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.51	-2	0	-2	17.2	16.3	0.93	15.8	17.9	-2.07
Raja Bell	19	25	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.26	-11	9	-20	16.9	17.0	-0.09	16.2	16.4	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.72,0.61,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.22,0.32,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.58,0	92.3%
OKC 124, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.43,0.55,0.42,0	91.6%
TOR 108, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.43,0.27,0	91.4%