NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	80		Excitement	3.6 [1056]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +10.8%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.1 [1054]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -15.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hanno Mottola	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Leon Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.05	15	68%	0.07	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	8	12%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.03	0.03	12	54%	-0.06	4	-0.10	11	64%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	8	88%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	62%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	14	48%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	33%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	11	59%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	13	33%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	25.5	15.5	31.4	1.8	33.2	133.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.6%

MIA +2.8%

MIA +4.0%

MIA +23.2%

ATL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	17.1	15.6	92.0	104.5	102.3
season	15.5	16.5		99.7	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		98.2	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.5	16.2	17.4	14.0	15.8
MIA	18.8	18.0	15.4	16.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leon Smith	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-13	14	9.5	15.9	-6.41	11.0	17.3	-6.29
Cal Bowdler	14	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-20	28	11.1	16.7	-5.59	16.4	17.3	-0.86
Mark Strickland	7	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-12	12	13.9	15.9	-2.07	14.4	17.4	-3.05
Hanno Mottola	23	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-13	14	13.9	16.4	-2.51	18.0	16.8	1.15
Toni Kukoc	36	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.09	-9	-3	-6	17.0	14.9	2.17	16.2	17.8	-1.65
Alan Henderson	23	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	-3	-6	17.8	15.0	2.75	16.4	17.4	-0.97
Jason Terry	72	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-12	12	15.7	16.1	-0.45	17.0	17.9	-0.87
Nazr Mohammed	39	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-1	-10	15.8	15.7	0.02	18.4	16.2	2.19
Jacque Vaughn	46	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	1	-14	15.5	16.1	-0.64	16.0	18.5	-2.48
DerMarr Johnson	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-5	-2	15.5	16.4	-0.88	17.5	16.3	1.20
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	63	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	1	-14	16.6	13.6	3.00	17.2	17.1	0.02
Ira Newble	51	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	16.3	15.1	1.20	18.6	15.3	3.27

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	75	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.25	30	-18	48	17.4	15.7	1.71	16.5	10.9	5.55
Rod Strickland	59	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.23	21	-9	30	16.8	17.8	-0.91	16.0	15.2	0.78
Brian Grant	56	57	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.12	17	-5	22	17.2	17.0	0.28	16.8	13.8	2.94
Alonzo Mourning	53	54	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.02	10	2	8	18.2	15.5	2.71	16.5	14.5	2.05
LaPhonso Ellis	43	43	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	13	-14	17.6	16.7	0.85	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Chris Gatling	40	39	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	4	4	16.3	17.9	-1.60	16.8	14.9	1.88
Kendall Gill	30	31	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	5	2	18.7	16.3	2.41	16.7	15.2	1.48
Eddie House	48	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.25	-6	18	-24	15.8	18.7	-2.89	15.0	16.6	-1.58
Anthony Carter	17	15	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.37	-12	24	-36	17.2	17.1	0.11	12.1	16.5	-4.46
Sean Marks	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	16	-20	17.2	17.1	0.08	8.5	16.5	-7.99
Vladimir Stepania	10	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	22	-32	13.7	17.6	-3.89	10.9	16.3	-5.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, ATL 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
WAS 88, SAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
NOH 91, SEA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.81,0.74,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%