NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	85		Excitement	10.0 [52]		MVP	Jerome Williams (TOR): +25.1%
Atlanta Hawks	83		Comeback	4.8 [187]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -60.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Williams	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.25	-0.06	0.31	-0.00	10	46%	0.29	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.10
Morris Peterson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.13	0.01	14	48%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.04
Eric Montross	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Childs	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.07	-0.01	-0.08	-0.02	9	67%	0.20	4	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	5	60%	0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	14	42%	-0.10	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.03
Antonio Davis	-0.60	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.6	-0.11	-0.49	0.01	16	43%	-0.34	4	-0.27	3	100%	0.04

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	3	60%	0.00	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	45%	-0.01	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.11,-0.21,-0.41,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	26	41%	-0.05	2	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.22,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	18	39%	-0.00	3	-0.20	5	100%	0.09
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.35	-0.35	-0.05	-0.31	-0.00	10	44%	-0.28	1	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.0	28.2	15.4	27.4	2.5	35.0	132.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +63.6%

ATL -21.8%

TOR +31.6%

ATL -20.7%

ATL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.4	15.6	92.4	89.2	102.3
season	16.2	15.5		100.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		103.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.6	14.8	17.0	14.7	15.7
ATL	16.1	14.0	16.5	15.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	76	77	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.41	12	-10	22	15.6	16.0	-0.36	16.1	12.4	3.61
Chris Childs	43	44	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	0	2	15.0	16.3	-1.37	15.7	15.1	0.61
Antonio Davis	72	74	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	0	2	16.1	14.3	1.80	15.6	14.7	0.94
Keon Clark	62	63	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.47	-6	8	-14	14.6	18.0	-3.40	14.6	17.3	-2.71
Jerome Williams	57	58	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	-2	6	16.4	14.6	1.74	15.8	14.9	0.87
Eric Montross	30	30	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	-6	14	18.0	14.6	3.40	17.3	14.6	2.71
Alvin Williams	72	71	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.39	-7	9	-16	16.1	14.2	1.93	15.0	16.9	-1.88
Hakeem Olajuwon	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.09	2	0	2	14.3	16.4	-2.18	14.7	15.8	-1.13
Jermaine Jackson	6	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	2	-2	15.7	15.7	-0.04	14.6	15.5	-0.88
Michael Bradley	11	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	9	-16	14.4	15.9	-1.53	12.0	15.8	-3.84

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hanno Mottola	20	20	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-3	4	13.5	15.9	-2.40	13.3	16.4	-3.08
Alan Henderson	43	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-1	0	15.6	15.3	0.28	14.5	16.7	-2.15
Jason Terry	76	77	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.11	-2	0	-2	15.3	15.8	-0.48	16.1	13.7	2.36
Toni Kukoc	60	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.48	9	-11	20	14.7	16.7	-1.92	14.7	17.5	-2.82
DerMarr Johnson	29	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.00	-8	6	-14	17.3	14.6	2.73	18.0	14.6	3.40
Nazr Mohammed	50	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-1	0	15.3	15.6	-0.28	16.7	14.5	2.15
Ira Newble	70	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	0	-2	15.4	15.6	-0.24	15.8	15.4	0.45
Jacque Vaughn	44	42	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	1	-4	15.4	15.5	-0.13	14.6	16.6	-2.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	73	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.47	-3	1	-4	15.9	13.5	2.40	16.4	13.3	3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.35,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, OKC 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.08,0	92.2%
NJN 95, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.6,0.45,0.52,0.36,0.35,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.45,0.33,0.02,0	92.2%
BOS 111, MIL 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.18,0	92.0%