NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	7.4 [338]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +24.1%
Los Angeles Clippers	85		Comeback	6.2 [290]		LVP	Michael Olowokandi (LAC): -28.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24	0.10	0.14	-0.00	11	76%	0.25	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.03
Antonio Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.01,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	25	55%	0.09	3	-0.09	10	70%	0.02
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	4	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	11	44%	-0.08	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.05
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	4	33%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	62%	0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	16	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tremaine Fowlkes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	6	57%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.00	13	56%	-0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	4	30%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	26	43%	-0.08	5	-0.20	8	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	28.5	15.7	24.3	2.6	37.0	132.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +20.7%

SAS +21.6%

LAC -11.4%

SAS +21.2%

LAC -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	15.5	17.0	15.6	103.4	95.5	102.3
season	15.8	15.9		104.3	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		104.1	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	16.5	16.1	14.7	15.5
LAC	15.8	17.0	16.6	18.9	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	80	80	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-1	8	15.3	18.0	-2.72	17.3	14.8	2.48
Danny Ferry	48	48	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	2	2	16.2	14.7	1.51	17.2	16.8	0.38
Antonio Daniels	41	42	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-6	18	17.2	14.0	3.18	17.1	17.0	0.11
Malik Rose	28	29	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	-5	16	16.6	15.0	1.64	18.4	16.3	2.08
Tony Parker	65	65	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.34	1	5	-4	15.0	17.1	-2.18	17.2	16.5	0.64
Bruce Bowen	69	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	3	0	14.4	19.7	-5.31	16.9	17.4	-0.50
David Robinson	67	68	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.25	-6	12	-18	15.4	15.9	-0.44	16.2	19.5	-3.23
Charles Smith	42	44	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	8	-10	15.7	15.3	0.41	16.5	17.5	-1.06

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tremaine Fowlkes	25	27	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.07	5	-11	16	14.4	18.0	-3.69	14.0	16.2	-2.25
Elton Brand	58	59	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.26	6	-12	18	16.8	17.5	-0.68	14.7	17.2	-2.46
Doug Overton	20	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-6	6	17.1	17.0	0.18	16.7	15.2	1.50
Eric Piatkowski	53	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-3	0	16.5	17.7	-1.19	14.6	16.8	-2.27
Sean Rooks	33	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	2	-10	17.6	16.7	0.90	17.5	14.4	3.16
Jeff McInnis	71	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	2	-10	17.2	16.2	1.06	15.2	16.7	-1.59
Darius Miles	58	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	2	-10	17.8	15.6	2.20	16.5	13.7	2.85
Quentin Richardson	42	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	-2	-2	17.5	16.6	0.97	15.9	15.2	0.78
Michael Olowokandi	85	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.30	-10	4	-14	17.0	16.2	0.80	15.5	15.4	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.39,0.53,0.37,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 94, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	91.8%
HOU 108, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.54,0.32,0.28,0.1,0.08,0	91.5%
SAC 98, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.15,0	91.4%