NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	78		Excitement	4.1 [989]		MVP	Jim Jackson (MIA): +21.0%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.0 [1076]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -16.1%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.03	11	82%	0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	44%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jake Voskuhl	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	16	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	17	43%	-0.08	3	-0.07	10	70%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.06	0.02	13	88%	0.26	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	10	64%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	9	83%	0.10	3	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	11	54%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.02	21	35%	-0.10	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.6	27.5	15.5	23.9	1.7	29.3	122.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.3%

MIA +1.2%

MIA +8.3%

MIA +5.3%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	17.4	15.6	92.9	107.1	102.3
season	15.1	16.5		101.0	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.2	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	18.3	18.6	16.1	14.6	16.8
MIA	14.5	17.4	21.8	16.7	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	45	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-10	8	15.8	18.1	-2.35	17.7	17.1	0.65
Tom Gugliotta	13	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-8	4	17.2	16.8	0.37	14.4	18.1	-3.70
Milt Palacio	16	17	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-10	8	18.2	16.5	1.66	18.5	17.2	1.37
Joe Johnson	57	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-12	12	15.7	19.3	-3.67	17.7	16.9	0.80
Bo Outlaw	42	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-9	6	17.8	15.9	1.88	19.6	15.3	4.26
Anfernee Hardaway	27	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	0	-12	19.3	15.7	3.67	16.9	17.7	-0.80
Stephon Marbury	68	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	-2	-8	16.5	18.2	-1.66	17.2	18.5	-1.37
Jake Voskuhl	35	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	18.2	15.9	2.32	17.0	17.8	-0.80
Shawn Marion	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-5	-2	16.5	19.1	-2.58	17.0	20.1	-3.05
Dan Majerle	44	44	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-1	-10	16.5	17.3	-0.82	17.1	17.8	-0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim Jackson	59	58	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.19	12	0	12	17.2	18.0	-0.74	16.8	17.0	-0.28
Eddie Jones	80	81	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.15	10	2	8	17.3	20.5	-3.21	16.8	17.0	-0.16
Vladimir Stepania	32	31	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	5	2	18.7	16.7	2.01	18.1	16.1	2.03
Brian Grant	70	70	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	2	8	16.8	20.5	-3.67	16.9	16.4	0.50
Anthony Carter	30	29	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	8	-4	18.9	16.6	2.22	17.6	16.5	1.08
Rod Strickland	62	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.03	9	3	6	17.1	18.3	-1.19	16.4	18.1	-1.73
Alonzo Mourning	56	56	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	5	2	16.9	18.4	-1.48	16.1	18.2	-2.11
Kendall Gill	31	32	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	11	-10	18.5	16.8	1.65	17.0	16.7	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 87, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
IND 94, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
BOS 90, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%