NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	105		Excitement	9.5 [81]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +29.5%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	1.5 [1008]		LVP	Eduardo Najera (DAL): -37.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.14,0.09	-0.02	0.10	-0.01	11	59%	0.20	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Chris Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	-0.03	0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	7	57%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	7	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.08
Jason Richardson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	0.01	-0.16	-0.02	17	62%	0.16	5	-0.29	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.21	0.01	-0.22	0.00	6	61%	-0.21	0	0.00	11	82%	-0.06
Antawn Jamison	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	15	37%	-0.13	1	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.26,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.16	0.01	13	79%	0.31	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.13	0.00	15	54%	0.18	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	80%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.07	14	44%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.06
Avery Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.11	0.00	22	60%	-0.00	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.37	-0.37	-0.16	-0.22	-0.01	12	17%	-0.32	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	26.2	16.0	24.2	2.3	35.4	132.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +9.2%

DAL +16.8%

GSW -11.2%

DAL +37.1%

GSW -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.0	15.6	107.1	107.0	102.3
season	14.7	14.8		100.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.1		105.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.5	14.4	16.8	14.9	15.1
DAL	11.2	16.2	13.9	15.1	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	40	41	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.02	11	-13	24	14.8	15.4	-0.60	15.5	12.9	2.57
Bob Sura	48	50	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.21	9	-11	20	14.3	15.9	-1.57	14.9	13.0	1.90
Adonal Foyle	42	43	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	-0.06	0	-2	2	15.8	14.7	1.10	13.0	14.7	-1.66
Troy Murphy	42	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.17	4	-6	10	15.2	15.1	0.14	15.4	12.9	2.53
Chris Mills	29	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.37	6	-8	14	16.3	14.7	1.62	14.5	13.8	0.71
Danny Fortson	52	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	7	-16	15.2	15.1	0.05	12.8	15.3	-2.50
Erick Dampier	21	20	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	11	-24	16.5	14.8	1.71	12.3	14.4	-2.03
Antawn Jamison	80	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-1	0	14.7	17.2	-2.49	14.3	12.6	1.65
Jason Richardson	79	80	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.56	-2	0	-2	15.0	15.5	-0.49	13.8	14.7	-0.97
Gilbert Arenas	57	60	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.49	-15	13	-28	15.2	15.0	0.19	12.9	15.5	-2.59

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	71	73	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-11	24	13.9	14.2	-0.29	15.3	14.6	0.66
Steve Nash	66	65	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-5	12	12.9	16.0	-3.03	14.8	15.9	-1.12
Dirk Nowitzki	89	88	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-5	12	13.3	19.5	-6.26	15.2	14.3	0.93
Eduardo Najera	75	76	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.55	0	2	-2	13.7	14.7	-0.95	14.7	16.8	-2.11
Michael Finley	91	89	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	14.0	13.6	0.46	15.0	16.6	-1.57
Greg Buckner	27	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	2	-2	15.9	13.2	2.68	15.6	15.0	0.66
Avery Johnson	1	0	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	2	-2	3.0	14.1	-11.08	0.0	15.1	-15.13
Johnny Newman	20	16	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	8	-14	13.7	14.0	-0.28	16.2	14.9	1.34
Nick Van Exel	36	34	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	6	-10	16.0	12.8	3.22	15.7	14.8	0.88
Shawn Bradley	24	23	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.00	-8	10	-18	15.5	13.5	2.07	15.3	15.1	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.47,0.6,0.68,0.63,0.67,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, CHA 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.49,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.58,1	91.6%
CHI 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.62,0.85,0.84,0.83,1	91.5%
DET 101, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.77,0.59,0.47,0.72,0.75,0.54,0.84,0.72,1	91.3%