NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	89		Excitement	7.8 [276]		MVP	Juwan Howard (DEN): +24.9%
Denver Nuggets	84		Comeback	7.3 [190]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (DEN): -41.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.00	19	60%	0.25	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	6	62%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.02	15	61%	0.12	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.06
DerMarr Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0.08,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	8	50%	0.09	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	0.01	6	29%	-0.12	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.19	0.08	0.02	16	78%	0.25	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	12	54%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	15	54%	-0.01	6	-0.18	7	71%	-0.05
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25	-0.25	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	10	26%	-0.17	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.42	-0.42	-0.20	-0.22	-0.01	14	20%	-0.33	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.5	26.4	15.4	23.5	2.5	37.4	129.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +64.1%

ATL +3.2%

DEN -4.2%

DEN -13.8%

ATL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.1	16.3	15.6	103.5	97.7	102.3
season	15.5	16.1		99.7	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.2		105.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.4	19.2	16.5	16.6	17.1
DEN	16.4	15.1	16.2	17.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ira Newble	62	62	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.40	17	-12	29	16.5	18.8	-2.29	16.6	15.8	0.77
DerMarr Johnson	61	62	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-11	27	16.6	18.6	-2.00	16.0	17.3	-1.37
Jason Terry	72	73	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-8	21	17.0	17.9	-0.86	16.2	17.2	-0.95
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	76	76	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	-3	11	17.2	16.8	0.38	16.5	15.0	1.53
Toni Kukoc	40	39	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.41	0	5	-5	17.1	17.2	-0.12	17.8	15.1	2.69
Nazr Mohammed	38	39	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	-0.15	3	2	1	16.4	17.7	-1.38	16.1	16.5	-0.40
Hanno Mottola	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	8	-11	16.8	17.2	-0.38	15.0	16.5	-1.53
Jacque Vaughn	24	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	14	-23	17.9	16.9	1.02	16.2	16.4	-0.18
Alan Henderson	33	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	14	-23	19.2	15.9	3.31	15.6	16.8	-1.25
Dion Glover	14	14	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.09	-11	16	-27	19.4	16.7	2.73	16.4	16.3	0.01

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	35	35	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.26	14	-19	33	15.5	17.0	-1.50	18.6	16.2	2.41
Zendon Hamilton	10	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-7	9	15.4	16.5	-1.07	18.4	17.0	1.40
George McCloud	48	48	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.10	4	-9	13	15.6	17.3	-1.64	18.1	15.9	2.14
Kenny Satterfield	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-7	9	17.9	16.1	1.76	19.8	16.8	3.01
Scott Williams	27	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	1	-7	16.5	16.3	0.19	14.8	18.2	-3.40
Donnell Harvey	12	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-1	-3	16.9	16.3	0.66	21.1	16.4	4.64
Calbert Cheaney	29	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.10	-8	3	-11	16.4	16.3	0.10	14.6	18.4	-3.75
James Posey	73	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.30	-5	0	-5	16.0	18.2	-2.13	16.7	19.6	-2.92
Voshon Lenard	51	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-3	1	17.4	14.9	2.52	18.4	15.4	2.98
Juwan Howard	76	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	2	-9	16.5	15.4	1.07	17.0	18.4	-1.40
Tim Hardaway	59	60	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.47	-15	10	-25	16.5	16.0	0.51	16.0	19.8	-3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.65,0.61,0.38,0.22,0.15,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, LAC 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.59,0.54,0.31,0.11,0.06,0.01,0	92.1%
LAC 100, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.05,0	91.6%
PHI 92, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.28,0.23,0.02,0	90.9%