NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	89		Excitement	7.8 [264]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): +20.3%
Washington Wizards	86		Comeback	2.4 [398]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -24.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.12	-0.00	13	67%	0.22	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.24,-0.12,0.08	-0.08	0.16	-0.01	12	50%	0.22	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.06
Corliss Williamson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	7	36%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24	-0.04	-0.17	0.03	21	52%	-0.13	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.01	12	65%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.12,0.07,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	30	47%	0.03	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.05
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09	-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	7	71%	-0.02	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.03
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	9	44%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	4	40%	-0.06	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	7	21%	-0.09	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	6	31%	-0.09	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.6	27.3	14.8	23.0	1.8	33.5	125.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +74.0%

WAS -10.9%

WAS -12.0%

WAS -2.6%

DET +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	17.3	15.6	101.1	96.6	102.3
season	15.7	16.5		101.9	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.8		103.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.9	13.6	14.3	17.4	15.2
WAS	17.5	16.4	19.3	16.1	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	64	66	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.46	16	-13	29	15.4	14.7	0.66	18.2	14.6	3.63
Ben Wallace	60	61	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.48	14	-11	25	14.9	16.0	-1.13	18.9	13.9	4.98
Chucky Atkins	68	69	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-9	21	14.8	16.7	-1.91	18.0	15.0	2.91
Jerry Stackhouse	80	81	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.41	1	2	-1	15.1	16.2	-1.12	17.4	16.6	0.75
Jon Barry	56	57	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.33	3	0	3	15.8	14.2	1.63	16.6	18.5	-1.82
Michael Curry	36	35	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.12	-3	6	-9	14.1	16.0	-1.84	18.1	16.8	1.38
Corliss Williamson	24	24	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.07	-7	10	-17	15.4	15.2	0.20	14.7	18.3	-3.55
Damon Jones	20	20	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.06	-9	12	-21	16.7	14.8	1.91	15.0	18.0	-2.91
Zeljko Rebraca	32	32	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.07	-12	15	-27	15.9	14.9	1.02	14.4	18.9	-4.52

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Nesby	30	29	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.01	8	-11	19	14.8	18.6	-3.78	14.6	15.6	-1.01
Tyronn Lue	33	33	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-8	13	15.4	18.4	-2.99	14.5	15.7	-1.19
Courtney Alexander	43	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-5	7	16.3	18.3	-1.98	15.1	15.3	-0.16
Brendan Haywood	48	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-7	11	15.9	19.0	-3.06	16.6	13.7	2.94
Jahidi White	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.09	-8	5	-13	19.4	15.6	3.85	14.0	16.2	-2.25
Michael Jordan	76	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-2	1	17.2	17.7	-0.46	15.3	14.7	0.65
Chris Whitney	57	56	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.33	-7	4	-11	18.1	15.9	2.18	15.4	14.9	0.46
Popeye Jones	58	58	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.36	-9	6	-15	18.5	15.1	3.39	15.6	14.5	1.05
Hubert Davis	60	59	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.46	-9	6	-15	18.2	15.4	2.85	15.2	15.4	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.19,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.45,0.36,0.57,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 83, VAN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.49,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,0	90.7%
CLE 100, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.55,0.66,0.58,0	90.3%
CHI 100, SEA 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.45,0.24,0.26,0	90.2%