NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	7.3 [371]		MVP	Don Reid (ORL): +5.8%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	4.8 [385]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -24.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	8	39%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	58%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	20	60%	-0.02	4	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Jim Jackson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	8	35%	-0.02	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.17,-0.19	-0.10	-0.07	0.02	14	44%	-0.10	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	9	67%	0.11	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.06
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jud Buechler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	6	39%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.02	-0.04	14	37%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	16	44%	-0.03	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	17	40%	-0.20	2	-0.05	9	33%	-0.15

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	30.2	16.7	25.2	0.1	41.3	143.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.5%

MIA -4.5%

ORL +15.5%

ORL +23.2%

MIA -8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.1	15.6	91.6	96.8	102.3
season	16.5	14.6		96.6	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	17.5	16.0	16.9	16.2
ORL	12.3	16.0	12.8	15.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	5	5	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-12	19	13.0	16.4	-3.37	15.8	14.0	1.77
Eddie House	29	29	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-6	7	14.2	17.1	-2.90	11.8	15.2	-3.36
Brian Grant	62	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	16.5	15.5	1.03	14.2	14.0	0.24
LaPhonso Ellis	49	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	2	-9	16.3	16.0	0.28	13.8	14.4	-0.59
Kendall Gill	44	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-3	1	16.0	16.4	-0.40	14.4	13.9	0.57
Eddie Jones	85	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.40	2	-7	9	15.8	19.1	-3.25	14.2	13.1	1.15
Alonzo Mourning	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	17.1	13.6	3.57	14.4	13.3	1.06
Rod Strickland	77	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	2	-9	16.7	14.1	2.56	14.6	12.3	2.26
Jim Jackson	54	54	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.33	-11	6	-17	15.8	16.7	-0.83	14.0	14.3	-0.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Hudson	58	58	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-6	17	13.6	14.9	-1.25	15.8	16.8	-0.93
Tracy McGrady	84	81	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-4	13	14.2	13.3	0.97	16.3	15.6	0.64
Horace Grant	73	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-2	9	14.4	13.3	1.05	16.3	16.0	0.31
Darrell Armstrong	76	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-2	9	14.1	14.4	-0.30	15.7	18.2	-2.53
Mike Miller	68	70	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.38	-5	10	-15	14.3	13.7	0.54	15.7	17.4	-1.70
Don Reid	27	28	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	4	-3	12.8	14.6	-1.83	17.1	15.8	1.25
Monty Williams	22	23	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	7	-9	14.1	14.1	-0.05	16.6	16.1	0.50
Pat Garrity	65	65	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	5	-5	14.6	13.0	1.65	17.3	13.9	3.39
Jud Buechler	2	3	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.01	-3	8	-11	13.0	14.2	-1.15	7.7	16.5	-8.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.31,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 75, SAC 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.85,1	93.5%
ATL 98, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.85,0.91,1,1	92.6%
VAN 78, HOU 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.72,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.84,0.94,0.99,1	92.4%