NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	91		Excitement	8.7 [146]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +34.0%
Detroit Pistons	94		Comeback	54.6 [26]		LVP	Eric Williams (BOS): -30.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Anderson	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.02	17	53%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	3	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01	0.12	-0.11	0.01	18	78%	0.13	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	5	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	21	48%	-0.00	5	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.31	-0.07	-0.24	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.34	0.34	0.01	0.32	-0.01	20	57%	0.51	3	-0.17	9	78%	0.40
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,0.26	0.26	-0.05	0.30	-0.02	10	40%	0.29	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.06	-0.03	13	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	9	58%	-0.03	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	12	46%	-0.10	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.19	-0.19	-0.01	-0.18	0.00	5	67%	0.02	2	-0.21	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	30.3	15.7	27.3	0.6	36.3	139.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +9.6%

DET +55.6%

DET +5.4%

DET +21.2%

BOS -41.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	14.5	15.6	95.8	97.9	102.3
season	15.0	15.7		100.9	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.7		99.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.1	18.1	13.7	15.0	15.7
DET	14.5	13.2	15.1	15.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kedrick Brown	23	23	0.38	-0.88	1.25	-0.15	18	-21	39	15.0	15.9	-0.86	16.2	13.9	2.30
Vitaly Potapenko	41	44	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.14	-4	1	-5	15.3	16.0	-0.75	13.4	15.4	-2.00
Paul Pierce	87	87	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-4	5	15.9	13.6	2.26	14.9	10.2	4.69
Walter McCarty	22	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.26	-12	9	-21	17.2	15.2	1.99	11.4	15.4	-4.05
Erick Strickland	45	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	1	-5	15.4	16.0	-0.60	13.0	15.8	-2.86
Kenny Anderson	69	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.58	4	-7	11	15.6	15.9	-0.31	15.0	13.2	1.73
Antoine Walker	76	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.62	0	-3	3	15.6	16.2	-0.58	15.0	12.6	2.36
Tony Battie	48	46	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.70	-1	-2	1	15.9	15.5	0.45	15.7	13.3	2.40
Eric Williams	64	66	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.29	-17	14	-31	15.7	15.7	0.03	14.2	15.1	-0.97

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	67	65	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.31	20	-17	37	13.9	15.7	-1.75	16.3	14.5	1.79
Jerry Stackhouse	69	69	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.42	11	-8	19	14.8	13.6	1.27	15.6	16.0	-0.47
Chucky Atkins	51	50	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.61	1	2	-1	15.4	13.4	2.01	14.7	16.8	-2.06
Ben Wallace	78	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	7	-11	14.7	13.6	1.06	15.3	17.6	-2.38
Clifford Robinson	77	77	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.58	-9	12	-21	14.7	13.7	0.98	15.3	17.5	-2.23
Corliss Williamson	49	47	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.20	10	-7	17	14.0	15.0	-1.00	16.4	15.0	1.36
Zeljko Rebraca	11	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	4	-5	13.2	14.6	-1.45	21.0	15.0	6.00
Damon Jones	45	45	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.19	2	1	1	13.4	15.4	-2.01	16.8	14.7	2.06
Michael Curry	33	33	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.04	-15	18	-33	15.0	14.2	0.86	14.1	16.5	-2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.59,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 83, NYK 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.29,0.57,0.27,1	91.8%
BOS 94, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.24,0.23,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.66,0.26,1	90.6%
BOS 98, MEM 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.33,0.47,0.63,0.32,0.42,1	90.4%