NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	5.7 [662]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +15.6%
New Jersey Nets	104		Comeback	1.3 [978]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -25.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.15	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.03	0.01	16	72%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	61%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	10	65%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	53%	-0.01	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.13	-0.12	0.01	13	35%	-0.12	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	13	69%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	14	56%	0.08	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Donny Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	55%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	15	52%	-0.00	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	55%	-0.03	2	-0.07	10	30%	-0.15

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.5	2.4	30.3	14.6	28.4	1.8	26.3	123.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +9.3%

NJN +6.1%

NJN +9.6%

NJN +20.0%

NJN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	18.1	14.9	15.6	109.2	118.2	102.3
season	16.5	14.7		96.6	101.4
opponent	16.0	15.8		98.0	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.4	17.2	18.1	19.9	18.1
NJN	14.5	13.5	15.5	16.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	9	8	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-11	13	17.6	18.1	-0.59	15.1	14.8	0.30
Alonzo Mourning	69	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-9	9	18.1	17.9	0.24	15.1	14.1	0.95
Jim Jackson	64	65	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.14	0	-9	9	18.2	17.7	0.46	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Eddie House	25	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-9	9	19.1	17.7	1.40	16.2	14.3	1.94
Rod Strickland	53	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-3	-3	17.4	19.1	-1.75	14.3	15.7	-1.34
Eddie Jones	66	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-5	1	18.7	16.2	2.49	15.7	12.2	3.50
LaPhonso Ellis	32	33	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	5	-19	18.2	18.0	0.17	15.6	14.4	1.21
Brian Grant	73	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.26	-9	0	-9	18.2	17.4	0.78	14.2	18.5	-4.33
Kendall Gill	44	44	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.12	-14	5	-19	17.0	19.2	-2.19	14.2	15.5	-1.30

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	70	70	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.20	16	-7	23	14.3	16.9	-2.63	18.1	17.9	0.17
Keith Van Horn	58	57	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	1	7	14.0	16.5	-2.45	18.0	18.3	-0.34
Richard Jefferson	70	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	2	5	14.0	18.2	-4.24	17.6	20.2	-2.68
Aaron Williams	41	39	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	2	5	16.8	13.2	3.61	18.2	18.0	0.23
Kerry Kittles	71	71	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	9	-9	14.6	15.7	-1.06	18.0	18.5	-0.51
Todd MacCulloch	47	48	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	7	-5	13.2	16.8	-3.61	18.0	18.2	-0.23
Lucious Harris	35	33	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	7	-5	16.3	13.9	2.47	18.2	18.0	0.21
Donny Marshall	18	17	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	7	-5	18.2	14.0	4.24	20.2	17.6	2.68
Jason Collins	30	30	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	8	-7	16.5	14.0	2.45	18.3	18.0	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.79,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 103, WAS 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.48,0.48,0.67,0.68,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	93.8%
CLE 81, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.83,0.97,1,1,1	93.5%
MIA 88, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.5%