NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	101		Excitement	4.7 [864]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +25.9%
Sacramento Kings	115		Comeback	3.1 [841]		LVP	Anthony Mason (MIL): -9.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	-0.00	-0.02	18	72%	0.20	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	87%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mark Pope	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	19	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	17	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	11	64%	0.04	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	12	38%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.23	0.07	0.04	18	81%	0.27	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	11	73%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	27	47%	0.08	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.02	0.06	16	67%	0.08	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	10	41%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.6	23.1	15.7	24.3	2.4	27.2	116.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +35.2%

SAC +1.3%

MIL -1.6%

SAC +13.7%

SAC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.6	111.0	123.7	102.3
season	15.3	14.2		104.7	106.6
opponent	15.5	16.0		99.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.0	19.5	19.4	14.1	16.2
SAC	14.7	16.5	13.6	15.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-13	12	10.5	16.7	-6.23	16.9	14.9	1.95
Joel Przybilla	26	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-16	18	14.4	16.9	-2.52	14.9	15.2	-0.39
Michael Redd	48	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-7	0	16.0	16.4	-0.40	15.8	14.4	1.32
Darvin Ham	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	-9	4	17.3	15.2	2.09	15.2	15.0	0.20
Ervin Johnson	34	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	2	-18	19.4	14.3	5.05	14.3	15.6	-1.27
Tim Thomas	75	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-6	-2	15.9	17.7	-1.90	15.5	13.6	1.89
Ray Allen	75	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-9	4	15.4	19.9	-4.47	15.8	11.4	4.36
Anthony Mason	77	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	4	-22	15.9	17.9	-2.06	14.5	18.8	-4.30
Rafer Alston	70	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	-2	-10	17.0	13.6	3.40	14.5	17.0	-2.49

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	86	84	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.09	17	-3	20	14.8	18.7	-3.88	16.2	16.6	-0.42
Bobby Jackson	90	88	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-1	16	15.0	18.7	-3.66	16.2	16.3	-0.15
Vlade Divac	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.01	16	-2	18	14.5	16.5	-1.98	16.9	14.6	2.35
Chris Webber	88	85	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.15	10	4	6	15.2	14.4	0.77	15.8	22.0	-6.22
Doug Christie	80	78	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	12	-10	15.1	15.3	-0.21	15.4	21.1	-5.71
Hedo Turkoglu	45	44	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	6	2	16.2	14.1	2.03	16.5	15.9	0.69
Mateen Cleaves	7	7	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	9	-4	15.6	15.1	0.48	21.4	15.7	5.68
Lawrence Funderburke	7	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	17	-20	18.7	14.8	3.88	16.6	16.2	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 79, SAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.66,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.85,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MEM 86, LAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
NOH 87, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%