NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	5.0 [815]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +17.2%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	1.7 [858]		LVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): -20.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.02	0.00	11	92%	0.22	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	8	82%	0.08	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kendall Gill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	7	36%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	16	44%	-0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie House	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.14	-0.06	-0.04	11	14%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.08	0.02	9	40%	-0.09	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	16	60%	0.05	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	56%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	64%	0.06	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	-0.03	9	46%	-0.02	5	-0.11	8	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	28.3	16.8	26.2	2.5	36.4	136.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +24.8%

DET +9.4%

DET +13.6%

MIA -0.8%

DET +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	15.3	15.6	84.2	93.5	102.3
season	16.5	15.7		96.6	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		99.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	15.5	17.7	13.3	15.5
DET	13.0	15.8	15.0	17.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	16	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-6	6	13.6	15.9	-2.34	18.1	14.8	3.31
Vladimir Stepania	7	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-2	-2	19.1	15.2	3.93	12.1	15.6	-3.41
Kendall Gill	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-1	-4	15.4	15.6	-0.19	14.9	15.4	-0.52
Jim Jackson	55	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-9	12	14.3	17.2	-2.88	15.9	14.4	1.49
Eddie Jones	78	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-5	4	15.3	16.4	-1.03	14.7	17.7	-2.96
LaPhonso Ellis	35	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	2	-10	15.6	15.4	0.20	14.1	16.0	-1.82
Rod Strickland	58	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-6	6	15.6	15.3	0.34	17.0	12.6	4.45
Brian Grant	83	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-9	12	15.4	16.2	-0.76	15.5	13.7	1.78
Alonzo Mourning	72	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	0	-6	16.1	13.5	2.62	15.7	13.9	1.82
Eddie House	44	43	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	6	-18	16.4	14.7	1.73	12.7	17.5	-4.79

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	59	62	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-5	16	14.1	17.5	-3.37	15.8	15.0	0.77
Ben Wallace	82	84	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	-1	8	14.7	19.9	-5.17	15.6	14.5	1.09
Zeljko Rebraca	44	45	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-5	16	16.4	14.3	2.09	16.2	14.9	1.28
Chucky Atkins	70	73	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.32	2	4	-2	14.7	17.2	-2.54	14.9	17.5	-2.54
Jerry Stackhouse	54	57	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.20	6	0	6	14.9	15.9	-1.02	15.2	15.9	-0.65
Jon Barry	45	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	5	-4	15.5	15.1	0.47	16.2	14.9	1.25
Dana Barros	22	22	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	2	2	17.2	14.7	2.54	17.5	14.9	2.54
Clifford Robinson	49	52	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	11	-16	15.4	15.2	0.25	15.8	15.2	0.58
Michael Curry	35	34	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	13	-20	17.5	14.0	3.49	13.0	16.9	-3.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 76, ATL 86	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
MIA 92, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
HOU 67, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%