NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	91		Excitement	5.7 [673]		MVP	Grant Long (MEM): +8.9%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	1.2 [367]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -20.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Long	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	67%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Rodney Buford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Will Solomon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	13	48%	0.06	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	15	54%	0.03	6	-0.13	5	100%	0.02
Stromile Swift	-0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	6	42%	-0.08	2	-0.05	12	67%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.00	0.01	14	37%	-0.06	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	5	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	13	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	39%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	63%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	0%	-0.05
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	8	47%	-0.01	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	8	12%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	16	34%	-0.11	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.06	0.02	17	50%	-0.06	6	-0.14	6	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	26.8	15.8	26.3	1.8	31.2	130.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +27.9%

MEM +9.5%

MEM +1.0%

MEM +8.6%

MEM +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	15.3	15.6	93.8	89.6	102.3
season	15.7	16.5		96.0	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		98.2	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.0	15.5	15.4	14.6	14.6
MIA	14.2	16.5	15.2	15.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	87	86	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-7	19	14.4	16.1	-1.70	15.7	11.8	3.87
Jason Williams	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	-5	15	14.1	16.4	-2.31	15.9	13.0	2.97
Pau Gasol	78	79	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	-3	11	15.0	12.7	2.35	15.6	13.9	1.62
Stromile Swift	74	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	-2	9	14.7	14.2	0.53	15.2	15.5	-0.34
Shane Battier	73	71	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.29	-1	6	-7	14.3	15.4	-1.06	14.9	16.2	-1.31
Rodney Buford	36	36	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.17	-2	7	-9	14.7	14.5	0.23	14.8	15.5	-0.70
Tony Massenburg	40	41	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	9	-13	14.2	14.9	-0.68	15.0	15.5	-0.47
Brevin Knight	13	12	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	5	-5	16.2	14.3	1.91	14.2	15.4	-1.26
Will Solomon	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	10	-15	16.6	14.4	2.18	11.3	15.7	-4.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	42	43	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.17	5	-10	15	15.3	15.3	0.03	16.1	13.4	2.76
LaPhonso Ellis	33	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-4	3	15.1	15.4	-0.32	14.6	14.6	-0.03
Vladimir Stepania	9	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-3	1	13.8	15.4	-1.65	14.7	14.6	0.14
Kendall Gill	30	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.30	7	-12	19	15.0	15.4	-0.44	14.2	14.7	-0.55
Eddie House	42	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-9	13	15.2	15.3	-0.14	15.5	13.8	1.68
Rod Strickland	54	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	4	-13	15.3	15.2	0.14	13.8	15.5	-1.68
Alonzo Mourning	72	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-3	1	15.2	15.6	-0.47	14.2	15.7	-1.49
Jim Jackson	77	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	1	-7	15.2	15.7	-0.52	14.6	14.4	0.22
Eddie Jones	68	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	1	-7	15.3	15.2	0.08	13.9	16.3	-2.38
Brian Grant	53	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	10	-25	16.1	14.3	1.84	14.9	14.2	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.07,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 83, MIA 73	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.0%
CLE 105, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
SEA 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%