NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	126		Excitement	10.8 [25]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +53.0%
San Antonio Spurs	123		Comeback	12.9 [62]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -33.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0,0.03,0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.35	-0.00	0.36	0.01	21	55%	0.44	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.27	-0.00	0.27	-0.00	8	83%	0.47	6	-0.20	2	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.02	17	63%	0.25	3	-0.14	7	86%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	16	74%	0.33	6	-0.23	6	100%	0.11
Danny Manning	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	6	85%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Juwan Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.55,0.53	0.53	0.18	0.36	0.01	28	75%	0.80	6	-0.27	15	100%	0.12
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	-0.02	0.28	-0.01	8	47%	0.30	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	9	52%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	72%	0.07	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	11	46%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.08
Tony Parker	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	9	28%	-0.09	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.33	-0.33	-0.04	-0.29	0.00	7	55%	-0.06	2	-0.27	8	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.6	2.0	33.3	16.4	27.8	2.0	38.2	2.5	13.5	158.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +63.1%

SAS -24.3%

DAL +13.2%

SAS -13.0%

DAL +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	15.2	15.6	115.6	115.0	102.3
season	14.8	15.8		109.6	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.5		98.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	12.0	13.6	13.9	17.5	14.2	14.2
SAS	18.5	12.5	15.5	13.8	17.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	68	68	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.70	7	-4	11	13.7	15.0	-1.26	15.9	14.2	1.71
Dirk Nowitzki	104	103	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.36	8	-5	13	14.1	16.4	-2.29	15.4	12.2	3.11
Tim Hardaway	61	60	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	-2	7	14.7	13.6	1.05	14.8	15.8	-1.01
Michael Finley	104	102	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	1	1	14.3	12.6	1.69	15.3	13.8	1.51
Steve Nash	82	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	2	-1	14.2	14.2	-0.01	15.4	14.6	0.82
Eduardo Najera	56	56	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.17	-8	11	-19	14.7	13.7	0.92	13.7	17.0	-3.28
Wang Zhi-zhi	30	28	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	4	-5	14.5	14.1	0.44	13.8	15.8	-1.97
Evan Eschmeyer	5	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	8	-13	16.4	14.1	2.29	12.2	15.4	-3.11
Danny Manning	35	34	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.34	6	-3	9	13.1	14.7	-1.62	17.9	14.0	3.83

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	35	35	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.17	4	-7	11	15.1	15.3	-0.15	13.9	14.4	-0.48
Charles Smith	26	27	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-6	9	13.8	15.7	-1.95	15.9	13.7	2.23
David Robinson	53	53	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-4	5	15.2	15.3	-0.11	13.5	14.9	-1.33
Tony Parker	46	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	5	-13	16.0	14.7	1.29	12.9	15.2	-2.31
Terry Porter	66	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.43	2	-5	7	14.5	16.4	-1.94	14.8	13.3	1.58
Tim Duncan	101	103	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.42	-1	-2	1	15.3	14.0	1.32	14.3	12.0	2.34
Steven Smith	86	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-2	1	15.9	12.5	3.38	14.1	14.5	-0.33
Malik Rose	60	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	3	-9	15.2	15.3	-0.17	14.6	13.7	0.86
Bruce Bowen	62	63	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.50	-9	6	-15	15.2	15.2	-0.00	14.1	14.4	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.53,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.05,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.33,0.83,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 97, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.1,0.1,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.42,0	90.0%
GSW 116, LAL 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.15,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.42,0	88.2%
SAS 116, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.51,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.46,0.22,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.82,0	88.2%