NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	89		Excitement	6.9 [439]		MVP	Al Harrington (IND): +21.3%
Orlando Magic	82		Comeback	1.9 [354]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -22.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21	0.03	0.19	0.00	15	64%	0.28	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.00
Jeff Foster	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.00	4	80%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Reggie Miller	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	14	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Travis Best	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	16	56%	0.00	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.05
Jalen Rose	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.18	-0.03	-0.04	12	15%	-0.15	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.00	16	33%	-0.13	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	19	66%	0.23	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.03
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.02	6	57%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.08	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	8	40%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	15	28%	-0.13	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	511.6	1.8	31.2	16.3	26.0	1.8	31.4	620.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +14.3%

ORL -11.7%

IND +41.1%

IND +10.8%

ORL -4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ORL	NBA	IND	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.6	92.7	88.2	102.3
season	15.3	14.6		101.6	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.3	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.2	16.8	15.2	18.0	15.7
ORL	14.5	12.5	14.8	17.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Tinsley	72	69	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-5	17	14.4	19.6	-5.22	14.9	14.2	0.73
Austin Croshere	34	31	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-2	11	16.2	15.5	0.72	15.0	14.6	0.32
Jeff Foster	56	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-2	11	15.7	15.7	0.01	15.9	13.3	2.52
Reggie Miller	76	74	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	0	7	15.4	16.9	-1.51	14.9	14.4	0.48
Al Harrington	47	46	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	5	-3	17.6	13.9	3.78	15.3	14.2	1.05
Jalen Rose	64	63	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	-2	11	14.1	18.9	-4.75	14.4	15.4	-0.96
Jermaine O'Neal	75	75	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.18	-1	8	-9	15.5	16.3	-0.80	14.5	15.7	-1.13
Jonathan Bender	27	27	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	12	-17	17.2	15.1	2.05	13.0	15.5	-2.52
Travis Best	29	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.15	-7	14	-21	18.7	14.4	4.22	13.9	15.1	-1.28

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jud Buechler	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-7	7	0.0	14.8	-14.75	2.0	15.9	-13.85
Jeryl Sasser	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-9	11	6.0	14.8	-8.85	15.0	15.7	-0.72
Andrew DeClercq	21	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.18	-8	1	-9	15.1	14.7	0.44	14.1	16.2	-2.06
Tracy McGrady	68	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.15	2	-9	11	14.5	15.4	-0.83	16.4	13.7	2.61
Horace Grant	65	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-7	7	14.7	14.8	-0.10	15.4	16.3	-0.86
Darrell Armstrong	70	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	0	-7	14.7	15.0	-0.27	15.6	16.0	-0.46
Troy Hudson	25	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-5	3	14.2	15.0	-0.76	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Patrick Ewing	31	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-2	-3	15.4	14.4	1.00	16.3	15.4	0.95
Pat Garrity	57	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-6	5	14.2	15.6	-1.40	15.7	15.7	-0.02
Mike Miller	81	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	1	-9	15.1	12.5	2.59	15.1	19.4	-4.36
Monty Williams	46	46	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	1	-9	15.2	14.3	0.88	17.0	14.5	2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.05,0.15,0.05,0.23,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 98, POR 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0	93.3%
DET 105, CHA 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.29,0.33,0.16,0	93.1%
NYK 102, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.02,0.04,0	93.1%