NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	76		Excitement	2.7 [1181]		MVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): +10.1%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	1.4 [886]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -14.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	16	56%	0.07	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	12	42%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	8	17%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	6	17%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02	2	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	4	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	9	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	0.05	18	45%	-0.11	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.01	-0.04	19	59%	0.12	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.07	7	76%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.05	5	90%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	58%	-0.01	1	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	22	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.3	1.8	26.2	15.7	22.2	2.5	24.6	113.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +43.2%

WAS +2.0%

ATL -1.1%

WAS +4.8%

WAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.2	16.2	15.6	85.4	115.7	102.3
season	15.5	16.5		99.7	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.2		103.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.8	15.6	14.7	16.7	16.2
WAS	16.5	15.7	17.3	15.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cal Bowdler	15	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-29	31	15.5	16.3	-0.76	15.7	16.3	-0.54
Hanno Mottola	28	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.21	-9	-18	9	16.3	16.1	0.22	16.5	16.1	0.40
Nazr Mohammed	46	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-22	17	14.4	18.1	-3.68	17.8	14.5	3.25
Mark Strickland	21	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-23	19	15.6	16.3	-0.72	17.8	15.7	2.08
DerMarr Johnson	33	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.31	-17	-10	-7	17.0	15.7	1.32	16.1	16.2	-0.14
Toni Kukoc	63	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.08	-15	-12	-3	15.4	18.0	-2.64	16.7	15.0	1.68
Reggie Slater	42	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.23	-20	-7	-13	18.4	14.1	4.28	14.5	17.8	-3.25
Jacque Vaughn	84	86	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.19	-19	-8	-11	15.9	20.8	-4.91	16.3	12.7	3.65
Jason Terry	52	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.44	-30	3	-33	17.2	14.8	2.42	14.9	17.9	-2.93
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	61	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	-9	-9	16.1	16.3	-0.22	16.1	16.5	-0.40

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	61	63	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.37	26	1	25	16.3	16.0	0.23	16.9	14.4	2.47
Tyronn Lue	37	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.35	24	3	21	15.2	16.9	-1.71	17.3	15.3	2.07
Michael Jordan	53	51	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	17	-7	16.1	16.3	-0.24	15.3	17.4	-2.14
Popeye Jones	54	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	14	-1	16.0	16.5	-0.44	16.4	15.8	0.61
Jahidi White	41	40	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	17	-7	16.2	16.2	0.01	15.7	16.6	-0.85
Brendan Haywood	48	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.22	15	12	3	16.2	16.2	-0.01	16.8	15.4	1.44
Kwame Brown	34	34	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.18	12	15	-3	16.9	15.7	1.21	16.2	16.2	0.01
Tyrone Nesby	23	24	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	20	-13	16.7	16.0	0.68	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Hubert Davis	42	41	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.23	13	14	-1	15.5	16.8	-1.22	16.3	16.0	0.28
Chris Whitney	39	39	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	20	-13	17.1	15.5	1.58	15.4	16.8	-1.40
Bobby Simmons	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	29	-31	16.4	16.2	0.23	13.8	16.5	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 90, OKC 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
HOU 94, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
HOU 90, MIN 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%