NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	84		Excitement	4.4 [933]		MVP	Stromile Swift (MEM): +3.3%
Golden State Warriors	93		Comeback	1.2 [947]		LVP	Jason Williams (MEM): -13.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stromile Swift	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	80%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	6	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Will Solomon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.00	0.06	11	58%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Ike Austin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	11	42%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	0.05	20	45%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	18	54%	0.05	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	68%	0.03	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	2	33%	-0.02	3	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	15	47%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	11	50%	-0.00	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	28.2	15.8	23.2	2.7	30.0	127.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +24.0%

GSW +10.4%

GSW +18.5%

MEM -1.0%

MEM -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	GSW	NBA	MEM	GSW	NBA
this game	15.0	15.4	15.6	87.5	98.9	102.3
season	15.7	14.7		96.0	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.2	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.0	12.6	17.0	15.6	15.0
GSW	14.4	14.6	15.6	17.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	32	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-12	15	16.5	14.2	2.27	16.0	15.0	0.92
Will Solomon	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.26	6	-15	21	15.6	14.6	0.97	16.5	14.8	1.72
Tony Massenburg	22	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-9	9	16.8	14.4	2.35	17.1	14.9	2.23
Rodney Buford	39	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-7	5	16.2	14.1	2.01	16.3	14.8	1.52
Stromile Swift	67	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-13	17	15.2	14.5	0.68	16.2	13.4	2.79
Shane Battier	66	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-9	9	14.0	17.0	-2.97	14.7	17.0	-2.32
Ike Austin	46	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	2	-13	14.1	15.7	-1.63	14.7	16.0	-1.28
Pau Gasol	57	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	2	-13	14.7	15.3	-0.63	14.3	16.9	-2.66
Jason Williams	64	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.13	-12	3	-15	14.2	16.5	-2.27	15.0	16.0	-0.92
Grant Long	56	54	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.11	-22	13	-35	14.9	15.1	-0.24	14.9	16.0	-1.11

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	74	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-5	19	14.6	18.0	-3.35	14.6	16.2	-1.64
Larry Hughes	64	65	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-7	23	15.1	15.8	-0.69	14.4	16.1	-1.68
Jason Richardson	65	66	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.07	16	-7	23	15.4	15.3	0.07	14.7	15.6	-0.93
Danny Fortson	66	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.00	18	-9	27	15.4	15.3	0.06	14.9	15.1	-0.21
Erick Dampier	61	63	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	1	7	15.0	15.9	-0.89	14.8	15.3	-0.57
Troy Murphy	42	42	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.28	-7	16	-23	16.0	14.9	1.07	15.2	14.8	0.37
Chris Mills	39	39	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	15	-21	16.5	14.5	2.01	15.8	14.4	1.50
Bob Sura	29	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.17	-7	16	-23	15.3	15.4	-0.07	15.6	14.7	0.93
Mookie Blaylock	30	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.17	-7	16	-23	15.8	15.1	0.69	16.1	14.4	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.44,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 81, MIA 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
TOR 74, SEA 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DET 84, CLE 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%