NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	84		Excitement	10.0 [51]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +56.9%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	4.5 [229]		LVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): -39.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.57	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.02,-0.14,0.57	0.00	0.56	-0.01	23	63%	0.89	7	-0.32	6	83%	0.02
Erick Strickland	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0	0.03	-0.05	-0.01	23	56%	0.05	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.10
Kedrick Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	4	50%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Kenny Anderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	5	45%	-0.04	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.06	0.06	-0.05	0.11	-0.00	12	35%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.16
Tang Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.06	-0.00	7	65%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.00	6	79%	0.07	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	4	60%	0.00	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.14	-0.14	0.06	-0.19	0.00	19	56%	-0.14	0	0.00	10	90%	0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	9	36%	-0.06	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	5	42%	-0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25,-0.39	-0.39	-0.14	-0.25	-0.00	7	24%	-0.31	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.6	30.0	17.5	28.3	2.3	32.8	139.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +148.7%

MIA -67.7%

MIA -22.2%

MIA -10.7%

BOS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	17.1	15.6	95.5	92.2	102.3
season	15.0	16.5		100.9	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		98.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.3	15.2	16.7	17.1	15.2
MIA	19.0	16.1	15.3	18.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	53	57	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.45	15	-14	29	14.7	16.1	-1.44	17.2	16.9	0.24
Eric Williams	40	43	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.38	13	-12	25	14.5	15.9	-1.38	15.9	18.2	-2.26
Vitaly Potapenko	40	39	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-9	19	15.2	15.3	-0.05	19.4	15.3	4.05
Antoine Walker	83	84	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.2	16.8	-1.64	17.2	15.0	2.24
Paul Pierce	56	58	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.66	-10	11	-21	15.7	14.5	1.23	17.0	17.3	-0.35
Mark Blount	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	1	-1	13.9	15.4	-1.53	13.8	17.5	-3.73
Kedrick Brown	9	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	3	-5	16.0	15.2	0.84	14.9	17.3	-2.43
Milt Palacio	27	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	0	1	16.0	14.9	1.14	16.5	17.4	-0.91
Kenny Anderson	60	61	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.16	-2	3	-5	15.1	15.6	-0.47	17.7	15.9	1.76
Joe Johnson	24	21	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.11	-12	13	-25	16.2	14.9	1.37	19.0	16.5	2.55
Tony Battie	37	40	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.02	-9	10	-19	15.7	14.9	0.73	15.7	18.2	-2.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	72	71	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.17	7	-8	15	16.3	20.4	-4.12	14.7	17.5	-2.83
Tang Hamilton	5	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-1	1	12.6	17.4	-4.75	16.8	15.2	1.64
Sean Marks	54	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	2	-5	17.5	16.4	1.12	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Eddie Jones	75	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.43	6	-7	13	17.3	16.1	1.15	15.3	15.0	0.30
Anthony Carter	41	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	3	-7	16.5	17.6	-1.06	13.8	16.5	-2.70
Eddie House	53	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.33	-1	0	-1	16.8	17.5	-0.72	15.3	15.2	0.12
Rod Strickland	53	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	0	-1	17.8	16.1	1.76	16.7	13.1	3.62
Chris Gatling	33	31	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	4	-9	18.8	16.1	2.68	16.6	14.5	2.10
Alonzo Mourning	64	64	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.53	-4	3	-7	16.9	17.5	-0.63	14.8	16.5	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.68,0.53,0.73,0.62,0.72,0.57,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 87, BOS 80	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.42,0	89.7%
SAS 89, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	89.6%
BOS 87, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.51,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.27,0	89.5%