NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	87		Excitement	5.9 [638]		MVP	Dell Curry (TOR): +4.2%
Phoenix Suns	81		Comeback	1.1 [588]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (PHX): -34.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02	-0.04	0.07	0.00	12	46%	0.11	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	21	65%	0.11	5	-0.10	6	50%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	15	50%	0.07	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.01
Chris Childs	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	67%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Keon Clark	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	5	29%	-0.06	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	9	25%	-0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	21	51%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	8	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.23	0.04	0.00	19	26%	-0.07	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.34	-0.34	-0.18	-0.17	-0.01	18	46%	-0.04	8	-0.31	5	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	27.0	14.8	24.1	2.6	37.2	133.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.1%

PHX -9.6%

TOR +19.8%

TOR +6.3%

TOR +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHX	NBA	TOR	PHX	NBA
this game	16.7	14.2	15.6	93.5	87.1	102.3
season	16.2	15.1		100.3	101.0
opponent	15.8	15.6		102.1	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.2	17.9	19.1	16.2	16.7
PHX	15.8	12.6	16.9	12.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	81	82	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-4	14	16.9	15.8	1.04	14.2	14.5	-0.36
Antonio Davis	81	80	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-4	14	16.7	16.7	-0.01	14.2	14.2	0.08
Vince Carter	93	93	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	16.7	0.0	16.74	14.2	0.0	14.23
Hakeem Olajuwon	54	53	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	-2	10	16.9	16.6	0.26	14.7	13.6	1.01
Chris Childs	36	34	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	1	4	14.5	18.2	-3.66	13.0	14.9	-1.98
Alvin Williams	69	71	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	7	-8	17.4	14.7	2.68	13.8	15.5	-1.67
Keon Clark	34	34	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.22	-6	12	-18	17.0	16.6	0.36	15.4	13.6	1.82
Dell Curry	17	18	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	8	-10	17.2	16.6	0.60	14.8	14.1	0.75

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	60	59	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.36	12	-18	30	13.7	15.2	-1.58	18.1	14.5	3.58
Rodney Rogers	54	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-7	8	14.4	14.1	0.30	16.8	16.6	0.15
Dan Majerle	24	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	0	-6	17.0	13.3	3.68	16.2	16.9	-0.75
Jake Voskuhl	22	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	3	-12	15.5	13.8	1.61	17.0	16.6	0.40
Jake Tsakalidis	14	16	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	6	-18	16.8	13.8	3.01	14.0	17.3	-3.31
Shawn Marion	86	86	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.38	2	-8	10	14.0	17.4	-3.46	17.1	12.9	4.20
Tom Gugliotta	45	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.18	-7	1	-8	13.9	14.5	-0.57	15.9	17.5	-1.65
Anfernee Hardaway	78	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-2	-2	13.7	17.1	-3.47	16.3	18.6	-2.33
Stephon Marbury	82	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	1	-8	14.0	16.3	-2.32	16.9	15.5	1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0,0	93.8%
BOS 93, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0	93.6%
NYK 105, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	93.6%