NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	7.0 [396]		MVP	Mike Miller (ORL): +15.3%
Orlando Magic	91		Comeback	2.8 [274]		LVP	Cedric Ceballos (MIA): -18.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	11	79%	0.18	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
A.C. Green	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	15	58%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Brian Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Eddie House	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	15	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.02	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	61%	0.03	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.03
Ricky Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	9	33%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	13	29%	-0.12	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	10	100%	0.24	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	11	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	9	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	10	54%	0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.01	7	53%	-0.01	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	15%	-0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	6	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	30.7	19.8	26.5	3.4	27.2	133.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +12.5%

ORL -0.9%

MIA +18.1%

MIA +21.0%

ORL -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.3	15.5	112.0	96.8	100.9
season	16.3	14.6		98.4	101.6
opponent	15.8	16.1		100.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	16.6	17.5	16.0	16.7
ORL	13.2	12.8	14.5	16.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	44	43	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.14	19	-7	26	16.9	16.5	0.41	15.1	13.5	1.59
Cedric Ceballos	40	41	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-3	18	16.2	17.1	-0.96	14.1	14.4	-0.23
Brian Grant	46	47	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.14	13	-1	14	15.9	17.5	-1.61	14.3	14.2	0.09
Eddie House	63	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	1	10	17.0	16.1	0.85	14.7	13.3	1.35
Eddie Jones	70	71	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	3	6	16.5	17.3	-0.73	14.7	13.0	1.75
A.C. Green	72	75	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	4	4	17.0	15.7	1.24	14.2	14.7	-0.51
Anthony Carter	25	26	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	13	-14	16.1	16.9	-0.82	12.8	14.8	-2.03
Bruce Bowen	51	54	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	18	-24	17.0	16.4	0.63	14.2	14.3	-0.08
Alonzo Mourning	49	48	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.03	-8	20	-28	17.2	16.1	1.13	13.4	15.2	-1.84

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	29	29	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.00	8	-20	28	13.1	14.8	-1.65	18.0	16.1	1.87
Mike Miller	39	38	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.01	6	-18	24	13.5	14.8	-1.26	17.6	16.1	1.47
Andrew DeClercq	41	40	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.05	4	-16	20	14.2	14.4	-0.19	17.7	16.0	1.69
Darrell Armstrong	43	43	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-12	12	14.1	14.4	-0.25	17.1	16.3	0.79
Tracy McGrady	24	24	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	13.2	14.6	-1.38	16.7	16.7	0.04
Monty Williams	57	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-5	-2	14.3	14.3	0.01	17.9	14.9	2.96
John Amaechi	33	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	-6	0	14.3	14.2	0.09	15.2	17.5	-2.35
Troy Hudson	51	49	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.16	-12	0	-12	14.4	14.1	0.25	16.3	17.1	-0.79
Don Reid	51	49	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	2	-16	15.0	13.4	1.54	15.2	18.4	-3.19
Dee Brown	55	54	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.16	-18	6	-24	14.8	13.5	1.26	16.1	17.6	-1.47
Pat Garrity	47	47	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.13	-21	9	-30	14.8	13.8	1.02	16.3	17.2	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 108, BKN 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.19,0.07,0.19,0.1,0.05,0.02,0	93.1%
UTA 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.12,0.06,0.02,0	92.8%
MIA 100, PHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.02,0	92.4%