NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	108		Excitement	10.0 [52]		MVP	Derrick McKey (IND): +10.4%
Indiana Pacers	113		Comeback	1.6 [724]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -29.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.06,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	13	56%	0.10	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.01
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	12	62%	0.22	7	-0.30	5	100%	0.04
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	5	43%	-0.05	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Eric Williams	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	10	39%	-0.10	3	-0.16	8	62%	-0.03
Antoine Walker	-0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,-0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3	0.04	-0.30	0.04	28	61%	-0.00	6	-0.30	5	100%	0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	69%	0.15	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	12	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	14	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	11	60%	0.11	3	-0.19	8	50%	-0.07
Reggie Miller	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.12,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.03	-0.15	0.01	21	58%	-0.06	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	2	37%	-0.06	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.06
Jalen Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	13	43%	-0.14	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	31.4	15.6	27.4	2.4	29.2	1.8	12.8	150.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +9.7%

BOS -6.6%

IND +11.0%

IND +33.0%

IND +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	13.7	15.8	15.5	100.0	104.6	100.9
season	15.1	15.9		99.7	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.4		99.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	13.8	13.3	13.0	16.8	10.4	13.7
IND	15.7	13.9	17.0	18.4	13.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	64	64	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.29	2	-7	9	13.8	13.5	0.37	15.9	15.6	0.31
Tony Battie	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-5	5	19.0	13.6	5.36	7.0	15.9	-8.92
Adrian Griffin	33	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-5	5	12.1	14.4	-2.35	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Chris Herren	4	4	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	3	-11	18.2	13.5	4.73	16.7	15.7	1.04
Milt Palacio	75	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.38	1	-6	7	12.4	16.5	-4.11	15.7	15.9	-0.24
Antoine Walker	104	104	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-6	7	13.9	9.5	4.36	15.7	17.0	-1.30
Vitaly Potapenko	68	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	0	-5	13.9	13.3	0.59	16.2	15.1	1.05
Mark Blount	31	33	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	0	-5	14.3	13.5	0.84	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Paul Pierce	66	68	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	14.4	12.6	1.76	15.6	16.0	-0.48
Eric Williams	94	94	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	2	-9	13.9	12.3	1.62	16.1	13.6	2.42

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	88	86	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.52	8	-3	11	15.6	16.5	-0.98	14.2	11.6	2.64
Reggie Miller	73	72	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.25	8	-3	11	15.7	15.9	-0.29	13.5	14.1	-0.67
Jeff Foster	48	48	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.32	5	0	5	16.6	15.0	1.57	14.5	13.0	1.49
Al Harrington	68	66	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	0	5	16.3	14.7	1.59	14.6	12.3	2.23
Jalen Rose	89	88	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	4	-3	15.4	17.2	-1.77	13.6	14.1	-0.56
Austin Croshere	43	46	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	1	3	15.2	16.1	-0.98	11.5	15.3	-3.86
Tyus Edney	19	18	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	-1	7	13.7	16.2	-2.51	14.8	13.5	1.37
Derrick McKey	42	43	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.06	2	3	-1	16.1	15.5	0.56	16.5	11.8	4.72
Travis Best	56	58	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	9	-13	16.6	14.8	1.74	11.8	15.9	-4.18
Jonathan Bender	14	15	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.04	-10	15	-25	13.7	16.1	-2.34	10.6	14.2	-3.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.84,0.96,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.96,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.53,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 105, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.71,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.89,0.97,0.95,0.85,0.46,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.73,1	90.1%
MEM 93, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.67,0.85,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,1	89.7%
GSW 82, DAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.85,0.91,1	89.0%