NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	107		Excitement	7.3 [345]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +30.0%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	4.2 [114]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -22.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.30	0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.31,0.3	0.04	0.21	-0.05	23	58%	0.34	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.05
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	15	65%	0.19	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	10	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mark Pope	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.05	13	43%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	17%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15	-0.07	-0.10	-0.02	18	46%	-0.02	3	-0.13	3	67%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	12	63%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.10	-0.04	24	43%	0.11	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.03
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	8	41%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	12	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	4	0%	-0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.03,-0.06,-0.17,-0.23	-0.23	-0.02	-0.18	0.02	29	48%	-0.14	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.3	25.6	15.4	26.4	2.4	29.6	124.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +55.6%

SAC -3.3%

SAC -4.6%

MIL +4.2%

SAC -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.2	13.8	15.5	103.9	98.1	100.9
season	14.9	14.4		105.9	103.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		97.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.3	13.5	14.9	16.4	14.2
SAC	13.4	14.2	12.9	14.8	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	56	57	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.49	17	-11	28	12.8	15.8	-2.99	14.5	12.8	1.72
Sam Cassell	83	84	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.56	11	-5	16	13.8	15.6	-1.82	13.7	14.3	-0.66
Darvin Ham	13	12	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.42	11	-5	16	14.8	14.1	0.67	18.2	13.2	4.97
Ray Allen	73	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.26	7	-1	8	14.2	14.2	0.03	14.0	13.2	0.83
Glenn Robinson	82	81	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.39	-6	12	-18	14.0	15.0	-0.96	13.1	16.2	-3.12
Scott Williams	4	5	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	4	-2	15.5	14.1	1.37	15.4	13.7	1.71
Mark Pope	39	41	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.13	-3	9	-12	13.3	14.7	-1.37	13.4	14.0	-0.60
Tim Thomas	55	54	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.23	0	6	-6	15.1	13.1	2.06	13.8	13.8	-0.04
Jason Caffey	60	59	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.23	-3	9	-12	15.2	12.8	2.39	13.2	14.6	-1.38
Lindsey Hunter	50	52	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.17	-6	12	-18	14.8	13.6	1.12	13.6	13.9	-0.33

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	60	58	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.20	8	-14	22	12.9	15.0	-2.14	13.7	14.9	-1.21
Vlade Divac	62	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-4	2	13.8	13.8	0.03	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Peja Stojakovic	89	90	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-8	10	13.7	14.6	-0.92	14.4	12.8	1.53
Hedo Turkoglu	30	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	8	-22	13.8	13.8	0.03	12.4	14.9	-2.52
Doug Christie	96	95	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-7	8	13.6	16.6	-3.00	14.2	13.5	0.74
Chris Webber	94	95	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-5	4	13.7	15.0	-1.34	14.2	13.7	0.47
Scot Pollard	41	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	4	-14	14.8	13.1	1.63	14.9	13.7	1.18
Bobby Jackson	43	45	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.13	-14	8	-22	15.0	12.9	2.14	14.9	13.7	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.63,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 104, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.57,0.27,0	92.3%
PHX 107, MIL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.21,0.22,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.73,0.39,0.71,0.33,0.26,0	91.4%
GSW 93, SAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.22,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.79,0.65,0.42,0	90.9%