NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	6.5 [478]		MVP	Mike Miller (ORL): +12.9%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	1.6 [1034]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -23.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.06	-0.04	12	54%	0.13	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Monty Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	-0.01	-0.00	15	69%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Don Reid	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	5	92%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	12	53%	0.07	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
John Amaechi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	5	25%	-0.01	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.21	-0.04	-0.02	16	32%	-0.14	4	-0.10	6	33%	-0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.12	0.12	-0.00	0.00	10	86%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dragan Tarlac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	30%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Dalibor Bagaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	14	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	16	56%	0.05	8	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	17	47%	-0.06	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	27.6	15.4	24.6	2.4	35.2	131.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.4%

CHI -10.9%

CHI -4.3%

ORL +31.3%

ORL +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.5	17.9	15.5	114.4	108.0	100.9
season	14.6	16.4		101.6	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.8		104.9	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	14.7	13.1	14.8	14.5
CHI	17.4	16.6	19.0	18.8	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	75	73	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.23	14	-6	20	13.8	17.7	-3.89	18.2	16.3	1.98
Tracy McGrady	76	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-5	18	14.6	13.9	0.75	18.7	13.7	4.99
Bo Outlaw	61	59	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-2	12	14.9	13.7	1.13	18.9	16.0	2.90
Monty Williams	47	43	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	2	4	14.3	14.7	-0.31	18.0	17.8	0.13
Pat Garrity	30	31	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.12	10	-2	12	15.1	14.2	0.92	18.5	17.6	0.94
Michael Doleac	21	20	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	2	4	13.0	14.9	-1.94	16.9	18.2	-1.31
Andrew DeClercq	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.07	7	1	6	14.1	14.6	-0.51	19.1	17.6	1.49
Mike Miller	53	55	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	8	-8	14.0	15.2	-1.14	16.7	19.9	-3.20
Troy Hudson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	10	-12	5.5	14.9	-9.41	6.7	18.4	-11.69
Cory Alexander	15	15	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	14	-20	17.7	13.8	3.89	16.3	18.2	-1.98
John Amaechi	32	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	15	-22	15.5	13.9	1.52	17.3	18.2	-0.91
Don Reid	21	19	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.08	-11	19	-30	15.7	14.1	1.54	17.5	18.0	-0.49

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalibor Bagaric	14	16	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.07	5	-13	18	14.7	18.5	-3.80	17.6	13.8	3.74
Corey Benjamin	17	18	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-7	6	17.2	18.1	-0.84	17.2	13.8	3.35
Jamal Crawford	33	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-7	6	16.8	18.6	-1.84	14.5	14.5	-0.03
Dragan Tarlac	30	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-6	4	19.4	17.1	2.26	15.6	13.9	1.67
Brad Miller	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	3	-14	18.8	16.3	2.46	14.0	15.3	-1.35
Metta World Peace	69	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	18.0	17.4	0.62	13.9	16.3	-2.34
Fred Hoiberg	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	1	-10	18.6	14.8	3.82	14.3	15.2	-0.91
Ron Mercer	77	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	-3	-2	17.3	22.5	-5.19	14.2	16.4	-2.15
Marcus Fizer	73	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	1	-10	17.7	18.7	-0.99	14.1	16.6	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.3,0.16,0.22,0.06,0.08,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 95, POR 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
MEM 91, NYK 85	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.02,0	92.4%
DAL 93, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.08,0	92.4%